中美页岩油发展经济性比较研究——基于鄂尔多斯延长组长7段与威利斯顿巴肯组的对比  

Comparative study on economical effects of shale oil development in China and the United States——Based on a comparison of the Chang 7 Member of Ordos Yanchang group with the Wil iston Bakken group

作　　者：刘涛[1,2] 来轩昂[1,2] 蒋传杰[3] 殷桂琴 冀忠伦[1,2] 夏良玉 LIU Tao;LAI Xuan'ang;JIANG Chuanjie;YIN Guiqin;JI Zhonglun;XIA Liangyu(Oil&Gas Technology Research Insitute,PeroChina Changqing Oifield Company;National Engineering Laboratory for Exploration and Development of Low Permeability Oil and Gas Fields;No.5 Gas Recovery Plant of PetroChina Changqing Oilfield Company;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

机构地区：[1]中国石油长庆油田分公司油气工艺研究院 [2]低渗透油气田勘探开发国家工程实验室 [3]中国石油长庆油田分公司第五采气厂 [4]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第12期98-106,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：从投资效益的经济视角出发,通过定性和定量分析,深入研究地质条件、开发技术、原油价格、税费政策等因素对中美页岩油产业发展过程中的作用和演变过程,揭示出影响页岩油不同开发阶段的根本驱动力量。选取地质条件相近的鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长7段和美国威利斯顿盆地巴肯组作为比较对象,建立基于中美财税制度的经济评价模型,进行资金时间价值的成本收益结构分析。对比结果表明:在美国页岩油发展过程中,早期阶段技术进步、高油价和税收优惠政策促进了产业发展,稳定阶段技术进步和规模推广引起的操作成本降低成为了主导因素,价格和政策变为次要因素。中国现阶段与美国页岩油发展早期近似,但钻完井投资、操作成本和税费要高于美国同期。中国页岩油逐步进入了规模发展阶段,在国际油价趋势不明和提质增效的大背景下,开发成本随着技术进步下降的潜力大小以及国家激励政策,决定了中国页岩油未来发展的潜力。From the economic perspective of investment benefit, this paper deeply studies the role and evolution of geological conditions, development technologic, crude oil price and tax policies in the development process of shale oil industry in China and the United States, and shows the fundamental driving forces affecting the different stages of shale oil development through qualitative and quantitative analysis. By selecting Chang 7 Member of Yanchang group in Ordos Basin with similar geological conditions that Bakken group in Williston Basin of the United States as comparative objects, an economic evaluation model based on Sino-US fiscal and tax systems is established to analyze the cost-benefit structure of the time value of capital. It shows that in the development process of shale oil in the United States, technological progress, high oil price, and tax incentives promoted the development of the industry in the early stage, while the reduction of operating costs caused by technological progress and scale promotion became the dominant factor in the stable stage, and price and policies became the secondary factors. China has now a similar characteristic to the early stages of shale oil development in the United States but the investment in drilling and completion, operating costs, and taxes are relatively higher. Since China’s shale oil has gradually entered the stage of scale development, the potential of development cost decreasing with technological progress and national incentive policies determine the future development potential of China’s shale oil under the background of both unclear trend of international oil price and the improvement of quality and efficiency.

关 键 词：页岩油开发 经济评价模型 经济效益 财税政策 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F471.2