基于HHM-RFRM-EOC模型的洪水风险定量评估与结构化表达  

Flood Risk Analysis and Expression Based on HHM-RFRM-EOC Model

作　　者：黄昕桐 王潇 张国伟 董利辉 曲娜 HUANG Xin-tong;WANG Xiao;ZHANG Guo-wei;DONG Li-hui;QU Na(Safety Engineering College,Shenyang Aerospace University,Shenyang 110136,China;Machinery College,Shenyang Institute of Engineering,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院,沈阳110136 [2]沈阳工程学院机械学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第2期878-884,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L21ATJ012);沈阳市社会科学立项课题(SYSK2022-01-111);国家自然科学基金(61901283)。

摘　　要：洪水灾害是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一,对洪水风险分析是减轻灾害损失和影响的重要途径。现有洪水分析方法缺少体系化流程,导致洪水应急时间紧迫、信息匮乏。为此本文研究提出了一种基于分层全息建模(hierarchical holographic modeling,HHM)与风险过滤、评级与管理(risk filtering,ranking and management framework,RFRM)和要素-对象-结果模型(element-object-consequence,EOC)的暴雨洪水灾害风险识别、筛选与表达方法。首先,构建暴雨洪水人力、设备、环境、应急管理、信息5个方面风险辨识框架,确定出暴雨洪水系统初始风险要素。其次,基于RFRM方法理论将初始要素情景按照约束条件过滤,形成主要风险情景。之后,结合贝叶斯定理对暴雨洪水灾害进行定性和定量化评级,筛选暴雨洪水灾害的高危风险情景。最后,将暴雨洪水高危风险情景基于EOC风险概念模型参数化,并采用Protégé软件结构化表达。研究结果可以为暴雨洪水灾害应急决策提供辅助支持,为优化暴雨洪水灾害抢险救灾和防灾体系建设提供科学依据。Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world.And flood risk analysis is an important way to reduce disaster loss and impact.The existing flood analysis methods lack systematic process,which leads to the urgent flood emergency decision-making time and the scarce information.To this end,an identification,screening and expression method of rainstorm and flood disaster risk based on hierarchical holographic modeling(HHM),risk filtering,ranking and management framework(RFRM)and element-object-consequence(EOC)model was proposed.Firstly,the risk identification framework of rainstorm flood manpower,equipment,environment,emergency management and information were constructed to determine the initial risk factors of rainstorm flood system.Secondly,based on the theory of RFRM method,the initial element scenarios were filtered according to the constraints to form the main risk scenarios.Then the rainstorm flood disaster was qualitatively and quantitatively rated by Bayes theorem,and the high-risk risk scenarios of rainstorm flood disaster were screened out.Finally,the flood high-risk scenario was parameterized based on EOC risk conceptual model and expressed structurally by protégésoftware.The research results can provide auxiliary support for flood disaster emergency decision-making,and provide scientific basis for optimizing storm flood disaster rescue and disaster prevention system construction.

关 键 词：暴雨洪水 HHM-RFRM-EOC 高危风险情景 参数化表达 

分 类 号：X959[环境科学与工程—安全科学]