碳中和愿景下典型国家油气发展策略及对中国的启示  

Typical national oil and gas development strategies under the carbon neutrality vision and its enlightenments for China

作　　者：王小林[1] 张国生[1] 唐玮[1] 刘嘉翌 WANG Xiaolin;ZHANG Guosheng;TANG Wei;LIU Jiayi(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第10期40-47,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：在碳中和愿景下,石油和天然气作为全球最重要的化石能源面临着重大转型发展。基于对全球23个典型国家的油气发展策略分析,其油气发展特征可被划分为五种:“供需大户且自给自足型”“供应大户且主要出口型”“生产少、需求大且进口平稳型”“生产少、需求大且进口增长型”“供需大户且主要进口型”。油气发展模式可被划分为四种:以沙特阿拉伯等中东国家、俄罗斯等独联体国家和巴西等南美国家为主的“坚守型”,以美国为主的“摇摆型”,以英、德、法等欧洲国家为主的“撤退型”,以及以日、韩、印等亚洲国家为主的“跟随型”。对中国的启示:油气发展需要按照国情走符合自身特点的发展模式,中国未来要走“发展中转型”的中国特色的油气发展路线;中国要审时度势地推进全球油气资源的获取;需重点围绕油气“发展中转型”这一主线,实施中国碳中和愿景下的能源独立计划。Oil and gas,most important fossil energy,are facing significant transformation development under the carbon neutrality vision.Based on the analysis of oil and gas development strategies of 23 typical countries,the characteristics of oil and gas development can be divided into such five types as large supply & demand and self-sufficiency,large supply and mainly export,small production,large demand and stable import,small production,large demand and increasing import,and large supply & demand and mainly import.Oil and gas development modes can be generally divided such four types as persisting style for Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia,the Commonwealth of the Independent States including Russia,and South American countries including Brazil;swinging style for the United States;retreating style for European countries including Britain,Germany,and France;and following style for Asian countries including Japan,South Korean,and India.The enlightenments for China include the development of oil and gas needs to follow the national conditions in line with its own characteristics of the development model,China needs to take the “transition in development” with Chinese characteristics of the oil and gas development routine in the future,promote the acquisition of global oil and gas resources,focus on the main line of transformation in oil and gas development and implement China’s energy independence plan under the carbon neutrality vision.

关 键 词：碳中和 石油和天然气 能源转型 发展模式 能源结构 油气供需 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F125