东盟地区油气区块合同2030年前到期情况及合作建议  

The expiration of contracts of oil and gas block in ASEAN region before 2030 and cooperation suggestion

作　　者：余功铭[1] 杨艳[1] 钟文新[1] 李海鹏 王轶君[1] 段艺璇 YU Gongming;YANG Yan;ZHONG Wenxin;LI Haipeng;WANG Yijun;DUAN Yixuan(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;PetroChina International Company in Indonesia)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油印度尼西亚公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第11期48-56,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：东盟地区油气资源丰富,国际石油公司在该地区的上游领域占主导地位。预计到2030年底,东盟地区累计将有到期油气合同区块273个,以天然气为主,主要分布在海上,包含油气田593个,可采油气储量共计413亿桶油当量,剩余可采油气储量共计184亿桶油当量,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、文莱、越南和缅甸5国剩余可采储量占比超过80%。对于到期合同区块,印度尼西亚和泰国采取油气资产国有化的策略,马来西亚将到期油气合同区块公开出售,其他国家倾向于继续依靠国际石油公司。印度尼西亚、缅甸、马来西亚的到期区块值得中国公司关注。国际石油公司退出东盟地区的趋势十分明显。中国与东盟国家具有传统的友好关系,建议中国石油企业抓住机遇,做大做强与东盟各国油气合作规模,并提升其对中国市场的出口份额;主动对外国公司退出及到期区块的投资机会进行超前评估和优选;东盟地区丰富的清洁能源资源蕴含着巨大商机,中国企业可统筹开展传统能源与新能源协同发展的研究工作。The ASEAN region is rich in oil and gas resources and the upstream sector of many countries are dominated by international oil companies. By the end of 2030, 273 oil and gas contract blocks will expire in total, mainly natural gas, mainly distributed in the offshore, including 593 oil and gas fields with total 41.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent of recoverable oil and gas reserves as well as total 18.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent of the remaining recoverable oil and gas reserves and remaining recoverable reserves in such five countries as Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Myanmar account for more than 80%.Indonesia and Thailand have nationalized their oil and gas assets for expiring oil and gas contracts. Malaysia has put expiring oil and gas contracts for public sale. Other countries prefer to continue to rely on international oil companies. Expiring blocks in Indonesia, Myanmar and Malaysia are worthy of Chinese companies’ attention. However, the trend of international oil companies withdrawing from the ASEAN region is clear. Since China has a traditional friendly relationship with ASEAN countries, it is suggested that Chinese petroleum enterprises seize the opportunity to expand and strengthen the scale of oil and gas cooperation with ASEAN countries, increase their export share to the Chinese market, and proactively evaluate and optimize the investment opportunities of foreign companies’ withdrawal and expiration blocks. The abundant clean energy resources in the ASEAN region represent huge business opportunities and therefore Chinese enterprises can conduct research on the coordinated development between traditional and new energy.

关 键 词：东盟 油气区块 合同到期 油气合作 市场份额 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F43