2022-2023年采暖季中国天然气市场供需预测  

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China during the 2022-2023 heating season

作　　者：罗帅 粟科华[2] 周慧羚 辛静 姚尧 俆玮琪 刘殊呈 姚梦碧 LUO Shuai;SU Kehua;ZHOU Huiling;XIN Jing;YAO Yao;XU Weiqi;LIU Shucheng;YAO Mengbi(Sinopec Natural Gas Company;Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and development Research Institute;CCB Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石化天然气分公司 [2]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院 [3]建银工程咨询有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第11期64-73,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：采暖季天然气需求受经济、节假日、气候等因素综合影响,近3年中国采暖季天然气供需格局呈现较明显的差异化现象。2022年前三季度,中国天然气需求规模连续6个月同比下滑;工业、城市燃气用气下滑明显,发电用气大幅波动;资源供应规模同比收缩,进口天然气价增量减。正常增长情景下,预计2022年冬季至2023年春季中国采暖季需求量为1814亿立方米,同比增长84亿立方米,增速为3.8%;低速增长情景下,预计采暖季需求量为1736亿立方米,增速为-0.7%。中国采暖季较可靠资源规模为1828亿立方米(不含现货LNG),总体满足采暖季需求,但在局部时段和地区仍有短时供应紧张的可能性,预计仍需采购LNG现货资源20亿立方米左右。建议市场研究人员加强多领域协同研究,提升峰值预测能力;供气企业提升用户管理水平,以合同为基础,编制保供预案;国内供应商加强在国际采购市场上的协同合作,避免内耗;持续推进储气设施建设,积极创新储气运营模式。Natural gas demand in heating season is affected by such factors as economy, holidays, and climate. In recent three years, the supply and demand pattern of natural gas in heating season in China showed obvious differentiation. In the first three quarters of 2022, China’s natural gas demand declined year-on-year for six consecutive months. Industrial and urban gas consumption declined significantly, while power generation gas consumption fluctuated greatly. The scale of resource supply shrank year-on-year and the imported natural gas showed increase at the price and decrease at the quantity. Under the normal growth scenario, China’s heating demand in the winter of 2022 to the spring of 2023 is expected to be 181.4 billion cubic meters,an increase of 8.4 billion cubic meters year-on-year, with a growth rate of 3.8%. Under the low-growth scenario, the demand for heating in the season is expected to be 173.6 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of-0.7%. The scale of reliable resources in China’s heating season is 182.8 billion cubic meters(excluding spot LNG), which generally meets the demand in the heating season. However, there is still the possibility of short-term supply shortage at some periods in some region. It is estimated that about 2 billion cubic meters of spot LNG resources are still needed purchasing. It is suggested that market researchers should strengthen multi-field collaborative research to improve peak forecasting ability. Gas supply enterprises should improve the management level of users and prepare pre-plans for guaranteed supply based on contracts. Domestic suppliers should enhance synergistic cooperation in the international procurement market to avoid internal friction. China would continue to promote the construction of gas storage facilities and actively innovate gas storage operation modes.

关 键 词：天然气 采暖季 供需 气候 调峰 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]