农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的影响研究——基于非平衡面板数据的联立方程模型  

The Impact of Rural Labor Migration on Grain Production:Simultaneous Equation Model Based on Unbalanced Panel Data

作　　者：李刚 吕沛瑶 LI Gang;LV Pei-yao

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院经济体制与管理研究所,北京100035 [2]外交学院,北京100091

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期43-54,179,共13页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“我国以人为核心的新型城镇化机制及推进战略研究(项目编号:21ZDA067)”资助。

摘　　要：改革开放以来,在不改变农村户籍制度的条件下,我国农村劳动力出现了持续的大规模转移。与此相伴随出现了农村劳动力素质下降、耕地抛荒等现象。这引发了学术界围绕农村劳动力转移对农业生产、特别是粮食生产影响的争论,且至今没有取得共识。事实上,尽管我国粮食产量存在过较大波动,但总体上是增长的。利用1978-2018年全国29个省市自治区的非平衡面板数据,构建多变量非平衡面板数据联立方程模型考察我国农村劳动力转移对粮食生产的影响发现:我国农村劳动力存在过剩供给,劳动力转移对粮食生产有正向作用,原因在于耕地面积的增加和农业资本投入(主要是机械与化肥)的增加。这表明,现阶段我国农村劳动力转移因为农户收入增加而产生了替代效应。Since the reform and opening up, China’s rural labor has been continuously and massively transferredunder the condition of not changing the rural household registration system. Simultaneously, the quality ofr ural labor has declined and arable land wasting has been increased. Both of this has triggered an aca-demic debate without the common view. In fact, although there is a wave in the production of grain inC hina,in general,it is increasing. Based on 1978-2018 panel data, this paper establishes the unbal-anced panel simultaneous equation model to build their multiple causality relationship. To test the above-mentioned consideration, and it finds that: at present, the rural labor migration has negative impact ongrain production. However, because of the substitution, rural labor migration can improve peasant’s in-c ome, so that they can invest more capital into farming, such as agriculture machine, fertilizer, which isgood for improving agriculture producing efficiency.

关 键 词：农村劳动力转移 粮食安全 联立方程模型 非平衡面板数据 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]