基于概念模型和“配料法”的西藏东南地区强降水数值预报产品释用  

Numerical forecasting products of heavy rainfall in Southeast Tibet based on conceptual model and ingredients-based methodology

作　　者：徐珂航 肖天贵[2] 刘孙俊 索琳 俞敏杰[3] 王慕惟 张佳伟 王映思 鄢晓茜 农雅月 XU Ke-hang;XIAO Tian-gui;LIU Sun-jun;SUO Lin;YU Min-jie;WANG Mu-wei;ZHANG Jia-wei;WANG Ying-si;YAN Xiao-xi;NONG Ya-yue(Southwest Branch State Grid Corporation of China,Chengdu 610000,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;National Power Grid Corp Fujian Electric Power Company,Fuzhou 350000,China;National Power Grid Corp He’nan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司西南分部,成都610000 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225 [3]国家电网公司福建省电力公司,福州350000 [4]国家电网公司河南省电力公司,郑州450000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第6期720-726,734,共8页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(SGLNDK00KJJS1700200);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK010408);国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B05)。

摘　　要：利用2006-2015年6-9月西藏东南地区降水观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的全球再分析资料,探讨西藏中部联网工程沿线及藏东南地区强降水天气的成因及其预报.结果表明,藏东南地区的强降水集中于7、8月的联网工程沿线中部(林芝)、东部(昌都);引起强降水的环流型为“两高偏弱”型和“西强东弱”型.建立强降水概念模型并基于“配料法”得出了客观预报降水范围,较ECMWF模式更接近实况降水.Based on the precipitation observation data and European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis data from June to September 2006-2015 in Southeast Tibet.The causes and forecast of heavy precipitation along the central Tibet Network project and the southeast Tibet are studied.The results show that the heavy rainfall in southeast Tibet is concentrated in the middle(Linzhi)and east(Changdu)of July and August.The circulation patterns causing heavy rainfall can be divided into two types,two high-weak type and west-strong east-weak type.By establishing the conceptual model of heavy rainfall and based on the"ingredients-based methodology",the objective forecast precipitation range is closer to the actual precipitation than the ECMWF model.

关 键 词：强降水 西藏东南地区 概念模型 配料法 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]