土地出让对居民消费的影响——基于土地出让结构及动态效应的研究  

Impact of Land Transfer on Residents’Consumption——Based on Land Supply Structure and Dynamic Effect Research

作　　者：刘晔[1] 黄晓虹 Liu Ye;Huang Xiaohong

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院财政系 [2]集美大学诚毅学院经济系

出　　处：《财政研究》2022年第10期16-32,共17页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“基本公共服务均等化建设中的地方财政体制改革研究”(项目编号:18ZDA096);福建省自然资源厅委托项目“土地批而未供原因分析和盘活措施研究”。

摘　　要：本文研究土地出让对居民消费的影响,结果表明,土地出让总量的增长刺激了居民消费水平的提高,结论在一系列稳健性检验和因果识别后依然成立。但土地出让结构对居民消费的影响具有异质性和动态性,具体表现为,出让住宅用地在短期内抑制了居民消费,但廉租房与保障房的供地对消费则具有显著的正向动态效应;工业及商服用地的出让对消费具有短期的正向刺激作用;其他用地与消费在短期内则没有明显的相关关系。因此,地方政府选择土地出让策略时应关注土地供应的动态影响,保持土地供应的长期稳定性,以此平滑居民消费预期,同时优化供地的结构,优先保障廉租房与保障房用地的供应,推进住宅租赁市场的改革,以此激发居民多层次的消费潜力。This paper studies the impact of land transfer on residents’consumption.The results show that the increase of the total amount of land transfer will stimulate the increase of residents’consumption,and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests and causal identification test.However,the impact of land supply structure on residents’consumption is heterogeneous and dynamic.Specifically,the transfer of residential land suppresses residents’consumption in the short term,but the rental housing land has a significant positive dynamic effect on residents’consumption;The supply of industrial and commercial land has a shortterm positive stimulating effect on residents’consumption;There is no obvious correlation between other land and residents’consumption in the short term.Therefore,when choosing land transfer strategies,local governments should pay attention to the dynamic impact of land supply,maintain the long-term stability of land supply,and smooth residents’consumption expectations,at the same time,they should actively optimize the land supply structure,give priority to ensuring the supply of land for rental housing and affordable housing,actively promote the reform of the housing rental market,so as to stimulate residents’consumption potential.

关 键 词：土地出让 供地结构 居民消费 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学] F126.1