基于MaxEnt模型对我国三带喙库蚊潜在分布区的预估研究  

PREDICTION OF THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF CULEX TRITAENIORHYNCHUS IN CHINA BASED ON MAXENT MODEL

作　　者：刘庆 杜雨彤[1,2] 邢丹 贾楠 谢静文 王明 张恒端[2] 赵彤言 LIU Qing;DU Yu-tong;XING Dan;JIA Nan;XIE Jing-wen;WANG Ming;ZHANG Heng-duan;ZHAO Tong-yan(School of Public Health and Health Management,Gannan Medical University,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Vector Borne and Natural Focus Infectious Diseases,State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity,Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology,AMMS,Beijing 100071,China)

机构地区：[1]赣南医学院公共卫生与健康管理学院,江西赣州341000 [2]军事科学院军事医学研究院微生物流行病研究所,病原微生物生物安全国家重点实验室,媒介生物危害和自然疫源性疾病北京市重点实验室,北京100071

出　　处：《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》2022年第4期203-211,共9页Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：国家艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治重大专项课题:(课题编号:2017ZX10303404)。

摘　　要：为探讨三带喙库蚊Culex tritaeniorhynchus在我国的潜在适生分布,利用MaxEnt模型结合19个与三带喙库蚊生存相关性强的环境因子对其潜在适生区进行分析预测。结果显示,当前气候条件下,三带喙库蚊主要分布于我国东南地区和华中地区,其高适生区面积266.29万km^(2),中适生区面积153.77万km^(2);在SSP126气候情景模式下,三带喙库蚊高适生区在2021-2040和2041-2060年将分别增加到362.81万和356.67万km2。测试集AUC值为0.978,说明预测结果准确可靠。影响我国三带喙库蚊适生区分布的环境因子中,贡献率前4位的因子为最暖季度降水量(51.6%)、等温性(19.1%)、降水量季节性变化(13.0%)和最冷季度平均温度(7.8%);刀切法分析结果显示最暖季度降水量、年平均气温和最干季度平均温度对三带喙库蚊的分布状况影响最大。预测结果表明,我国三带喙库蚊的适生区有向西北地区扩张的趋势,2041—2060年东南沿海地区三带喙库蚊高适生区将缩小。To clarify the potential distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus Glies in China, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by combining 19 climate factors with strong correlation with its survival. The results showed that under current climate conditions, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is mainly distributed in southeast and central China, with a highly suitable area of 2 662 900 km^(2) and a moderately suitable area of 1 537 700 km^(2);the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus will expand to different degrees by future climate change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126 climate scenario, and the highly suitable area will expand to 3 628 100 km^(2) and 3 566 700 km^(2) in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, respectively. The AUC value is 0.985, which indicates that the prediction results are accurate and reliable. Among the climate factors influencing the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China, the top important four contributing factors were the precipitation of warmest quarter(51.6%), isothermality(19.1%), precipitation seasonality(13.0%) and mean temperature of coldest quarter(7.8%);the results of the Jackknife method showed that the precipitation of warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and the mean temperature of driest quarter played a significant influence on the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China. The prediction results show that the suitable area of Culex trituberculatus in China has a tendency to expand to the northwest, and the highly suitable area of Culex trituberculatus in the southeast coastal area will be reduced in 2041-2060.

关 键 词：三带喙库蚊 潜在适生区 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：R384.1[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]