江苏省农村牲畜棚三带喙库蚊发生消长的中长期影响初探  

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON MEDIUM AND LONG TERM EFFECTS ON DYNAMICS OF CULEX TRITAENIORHYNCHUS IN RURAL LIVESTOCK SHEDS OF JIANGSU PROVEINCE

作　　者：杨维芳[1] 褚宏亮[1] 徐燕[1] 张育富[1] 刘慧[1] 刘大鹏[1] 吴治明[1] YANG Wei-fang;CHU Hong-liang;XU Yan;ZHANG Yu-fu;LIU Hui;LIU Da-peng;WU Zhi-ming(Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210009,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京210009

出　　处：《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》2022年第4期212-216,223,共6页Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：国家“十三五”科技重大专项(2017ZX10303404);江苏省卫健委课题(H2018103)。

摘　　要：为了解江苏省农村牲畜棚三带喙库蚊发生消长特征及其前期密度对后期的影响,本研究收集整理江苏省2009-2021年采用诱蚊灯法获得的农村牲畜棚监测数据,分析农村牲畜棚三带喙库蚊种群的消长特征;采用JASP 0.11.1.0软件的贝叶斯相关矩阵法、贝叶斯配对样本t检验和多元线性逐步回归法进行统计分析。结果显示,2009-2021年全省农村牲畜棚三带喙库蚊密度的年际消长总体呈下降趋势,其中2009、2010和2015年的年密度较高[≥60只/(灯·夜)],2016和2021年的年密度<24只/(灯·夜);2011-2013、2016年处于波谷时期。苏南农村牲畜棚三带喙库蚊年密度与苏中差异显著,且整体高过苏北、苏中;苏南的年密度与全省年密度相关程度最密切(Kendall′s tau-b=0.821,BF10=307.988)。季节消长总体呈单峰型,7月份为活动高峰,高峰期平均密度为313.45只/(灯·夜),8月份密度也高达176.94只/(灯·夜)。连续13年中,早期密度多对后期密度起中期(5~10年)、短期(<5年)影响,难见长期(≥10年)影响,防制工作应以治本清源为重点。结果表明,江苏省农村三带喙库蚊的防制成效整体明显,但三带喙库蚊发生高峰季节、部分密度高和其携带乙脑病原阳性比例高的牲畜棚及其地区,仍需加强防制。To study the dynamic characteristics of Culex tritaeniorhynchus in rural livestock sheds of Jiangsu Province and the influence of the early density on its later stage, the related data of 2009-2021 were collected and organized from Jiangsu provincial vector surveillance system, Bayesian correlation matrix method and Bayesian paired sample t test and multiple linear stepwise regression method of JASP 0.11.1.0 software were used for statistical analysis. Results showed that the annual density dynamics of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus generally downward in rural livestock sheds 2009-2021, of which the annual density in 2009, 2010 and 2015 were higher with more than 60 individuals per lamp per night, and the density less than 24 individuals per lamp per night in 2016 and 2021, while the density presented in the trough period during 2011-2013 and 2016. The annual density in Southern Jiangsu was significantly higher than in Central Jiangsu, and closely correlated with that in the whole province(Kendall′s tau-b =0.821, BF10=307.988). The seasonal density dynamics generally showed a single peak type. The monthly density peak, 313.45 individuals per lamp per night, appeared in July, and the secondary, 176.94 individuals per lamp per night in August. In a consecutive 13 years, the early density showed a medium(5-10 years) and short-term(<5 years) impact on the later, but less a long-term(≥10 years) impact, therefore we should focus on managing breeding water body or habitat environment. The overall control effect of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was obvious in rural areas of Jiangsu Province, but should still be strengthened in its high density period, and in where with high density and high positive proportion of JE pathogens.

关 键 词：牲畜棚 三带喙库蚊 种群消长趋势 贝叶斯相关矩阵法 贝叶斯配对样本t检验 多元线性逐步回归 

分 类 号：R384.1[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]