河南省种植业碳排放动态演化分析  

Analysis on the Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Emissions from Planting Industry in Henan Province

作　　者：孙康 解月 贠鸿琬[1] 何泽军[1] SUN Kang;XIE Yue;YUN Hong-wan(School of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou,Henan 450046)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第1期46-49,54,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国工程院战略咨询重点项目(2019-XZ-68);河南科技智库调研课题(HNKJZK-2021-31C)。

摘　　要：选取河南省2006—2020年相关数据,运用碳排放系数法测算种植业碳排放状况,在此基础上运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测2021—2030年种植业碳排放发展趋势。结果表明,河南省种植业碳排放总量和排放强度呈现上升—下降的变化特征,且碳排放峰值出现在2015年;化肥是河南省种植业碳排放的最主要碳源;种植业碳排放存在一定空间集聚效应,主要分布在豫东、豫南和豫北地区;预测发现2021—2030年河南省种植业碳排放总量和碳排放强度呈现进一步下降趋势。This article selected the relevant data of Henan Province from 2006 to 2020,the carbon emissions of the planting industry was measured by the carbon emission coefficient method,on this basis,the grey GM(1,1)prediction model was used to predict the development trend of carbon emissions of planting industry from 2021 to 2030.The results showed that the total carbon emissions and emission intensity of the planting industry in Henan Province showed a change feature of rising-declining,and the peak of carbon emissions occurred in 2015.Chemical fertilizers were the most important source of carbon emissions from the planting industry in Henan Province;carbon emissions from the planting industry had a certain spatial agglomeration effect,mainly distributed in eastern Henan,southern Henan and northern Henan.It was predicted that the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of the planting industry in Henan Province will show a further downward trend from 2021 to 2030.

关 键 词：种植业碳排放 动态分析 灰色GM(1 1)预测模型 河南省 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]