国内外极地海冰业务化预报系统概述  

Overview of Operational Numerical Forecasting Systems for Polar Sea Ice

作　　者：刘娜[1] 梁曦 李明[1] 田忠翔[1] 赵福 孙启振[1] 李宝辉[1] LIU Na;LIANG Xi;LI Ming;TIAN Zhongxiang;ZHAO Fu;SUN Qizhen;LI Baohui(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《船舶》2023年第1期30-39,共10页Ship & Boat

摘　　要：在全球气候变暖和北极海冰快速减少背景下,极地海冰预报发挥着越来越重要的作用。提高极地海冰预报能力是极区船只航行以及极区能源开发与保护等许多领域和方面的重要保障。近年来,各国发展并建立极地海冰预报系统,极地海冰业务化预报取得了显著进展。通过对海冰数值动力模拟进行模型开发、检验和验证,使模式结果不断向观测值靠拢,以实现灵活、强大的海冰模拟的目标,提高对极地海冰演化的预测。我国的极地海冰业务化预报系统在准实时同化海冰密集度和海冰厚度的基础上,实现了卫星观测海洋表面温度数据的融合,解决了极区观测变量数据同化技术中海冰-海洋界面物质和能量的协同调整的难题,为极地科考和商业航行提供更精细化、更准确的海冰预报服务能力。文中简要介绍国内外极地海冰业务化预报系统的现状,并展望了未来发展的难点与问题。Under the background of global warming and rapid reduction of the Arctic sea ice, polar sea ice forecasting is playing an increasingly important role. Improving the ability of polar sea ice forecasting is an important guarantee for polar ship navigation, polar energy development and protection. In recent years, some countries have developed and established polar sea ice forecasting systems, and the operational forecasting of polar sea ice has advanced substantially. By developing, testing and verifying the numerical solution of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, the model predictions are increasingly close to the observed values, so as to achieve the goal of flexible and powerful sea ice simulation and prediction. Aimed at timely and accurate polar sea ice forecasts for Chinese National Arctic/Antarctic Research Expedition and Arctic commercial navigation, the operational polar sea ice forecasting systems in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China assimilate the satellite-observed near-real-time sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness and sea surface temperature data on a daily basis, with a capacity of coordinated adjustments of relative tracers and momentum at the iceocean interface. This paper briefly introduces state-of-the-art operational polar sea ice forecasting systems in the world, and prospects the potential difficulties and problems in developing sea ice numerical forecasting skill in the future.

关 键 词：极地 海冰 业务化预报系统 

分 类 号：P731.32[天文地球—海洋科学]