北京山区泥石流的单沟预报  

Forcast of Single Ditch Debris Flow in Mountainous Areas of Beijing

作　　者：陈文鸿 余斌[1] 柳清文 路璐 马超[4] 孙帅 师春香[5] CHEN Wen-hong;YU Bin;LIU Qing-wen;LU Lu;MA Chao;SUN Shuai;SHI Chun-xiang(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention of Hilly Mountain of Ministry of Land and Resources,Fujian Geological Engineering Survey Institute,Fuzhou 350002,China;Beijing Institute of Geological Hazard Prevention,Beijing Institute of Geology,Beijing 100120,China;School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;National Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都610059 [2]福建省地质工程勘察院自然资源部丘陵山地地质灾害防治重点实验室,福州350002 [3]北京市地质矿产勘查院北京市地质灾害防治研究所,北京100120 [4]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [5]中国气象局国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第1期94-100,115,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2032);北京市沟道侵蚀泥石流多元预警阈值模型研究及示范工程项目(Z191100001419015)。

摘　　要：为给北京山区单沟泥石流灾害预警预报提供理论依据,基于近十几年北京山区单沟泥石流文献资料,从泥石流灾害形成机理出发,结合目前降雨站点数据,分析诱发泥石流的地形、地质和降雨等相关因素,采用适用于北京山区泥石流预报模型P=RT^(0.2)/G^(0.5),得出适用于北京山区单沟泥石流蓝、黄、橙、红Ⅳ级预警模型和相应临界值。研究得出的北京山区泥石流单沟Ⅳ级预警模型能很好地预报短期灾害发生,在龙潭沟等流域的验证中,可以较好地根据降雨的变化情况得出泥石流沟道不同时间段的泥石流易发程度,该模型为该区泥石流易发等级的快速识别提供了科学有效的方法。The aim of this research is to offer theoretical basis for forecasting and warning single-ditch debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing.Factors such as topography, geology, and rainfall that induce debris flow were analyzed in line with the formation mechanism of debris flow based on literature review in recent decade and rainfall data.The model P=RT^(0.2)/G^(0.5)was adopted for forecasting single-ditch debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing, and the warning models and corresponding thresholds for blue, yellow, orange and red warning levels were obtained and further applied to forecasting the debris flow in Longtan gully for verification.Results demonstrated that the forecasting model in the present paper could well predict short-term debris flow and acquire the susceptibility of debris flow in different time periods according to rainfall changes.The model can be taken as a scientific and effective method for rapidly identifying the susceptibility level of debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing.

关 键 词：泥石流 预报模型 沟床起动 北京山区 单沟 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]