高铁如何影响沿线及周边城市的产业分布与结构转型?——基于空间计量模型的机制分析  

How does high-speed railway (HSR) impact the industrial distribution and structural change between HSR cities and surrounding cities?A mechanism analysis based on spatial econometric models

作　　者：张洪鸣 孙铁山[1] ZHANG Hongming;SUN Tieshan(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2022年第6期1-13,共13页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971156);研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA040)。

摘　　要：中国高速铁路的快速发展将多数城市连入高铁网络,高铁正在深刻改变着经济空间分布与产业结构变迁。构建了高铁影响沿线及周边城市产业空间分布与产业结构转型的理论框架,将空间计量模型与中介效应分析相结合,利用2008—2019年全国282个城市的面板数据,实证检验了高铁对沿线及周边城市产业空间分布与结构转型的影响及其中介机制。主要研究发现:(1)高铁引致的市场潜力提高使高端服务业从周边城市向高铁城市集聚,同时制造业从高铁城市向其周边城市扩散,二者共同使高铁城市产业向高端服务业转型,使周边城市产业向制造业转型;(2)高铁引致的市场潜力提高通过促进高端流动要素的空间集聚产生集聚效应,从而推动高端服务业由周边城市向高铁城市集聚;(3)高铁引致的市场潜力提高通过形成不可流动要素价格差产生挤出效应,从而推动制造业由高铁城市向周边城市扩散。结论对于理解高铁在重塑经济空间分布与产业转型升级等方面的作用具有理论和现实意义。The rapid development of the high-speed railway in China has connected most cities to the high-speed railway network. This is profoundly changing the spatial distribution of economic activity and changes in industrial structure. This study constructs a theoretical framework to consider how the high-speed railway impacts industrial distribution and structural change between HSR cities and surrounding cities. This study combines spatial econometrics and the mediation-effect test and employs panel data for 282 cities from 2008 to 2019 to demonstrate the impact of high-speed railway on industrial distribution and structural change. The main findings are as follows:(1) The improvement of market potential caused by high-speed railways leads to the agglomeration of the high-end service industry from surrounding cities to high-speed rail cities and the diffusion of the manufacturing industry from high-speed rail cities to surrounding cities. This transforms the industrial structure in high-speed rail cities to be oriented to the high-end service industry and that of surrounding cities to be manufacturing-industry oriented.(2) The improvement of market potential as a result of high-speed railway generates an agglomeration effect by promoting the spatial agglomeration of high-end mobile factors, thus promoting the agglomeration of the high-end service industry from surrounding cities to high-speed railway cities.(3) The improvement of market potential caused by high-speed rail leads to a crowding effect by introducing the price gap of immobile factors, thus promoting the diffusion of the manufacturing industry from high-speed railway cities to surrounding cities. The findings of this paper have theoretical and practical significance for understanding the role of high-speed railways in reshaping spatial distribution of economic activity and industrial upgrading.

关 键 词：高铁 市场潜力 产业空间分布 产业结构 空间计量 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]