经济政策不确定性对林业上市公司投资的影响  

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Investment of Forestry Listed Companies

作　　者：俞晗 施正煌 黄国星 戴永务[1,2,3] 刘丰波 YU Han;SHI Zhenghuang;HUANG Guoxing;DAI Yongwu;LIU Fengbo(College of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002;Research Center for Collective Forestry Reform and Development of a New Type of Think Tank with Characteristics in Fujian Universities,Fuzhou 350002;Anxi College of Tea Science,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院,福州350002 [2]福建高校特色新型智库集体林业改革发展研究中心,福州350002 [3]福建农林大学安溪茶学院,泉州362406

出　　处：《林业经济》2022年第12期41-58,共18页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“制度质量对木材加工企业国际竞争力的影响研究”(编号:71973027)。

摘　　要：研究经济政策不确定性对林业上市公司投资的影响,对于在新发展格局下推动林业产业高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。文章基于实物期权理论,采用中国经济政策不确定性指数与2004-2020年沪深A股上市公司财务面板数据,实证分析经济政策不确定性对林业上市公司投资规模的影响,以及与其他行业上市公司的差异。研究结果表明:(1)经济政策不确定性对林业上市公司投资规模的抑制效应系数为-2.446,对非林业上市公司投资规模的抑制效应系数为-0.745,说明林业上市公司投资更易受经济政策不确定性的影响。(2)林业投资资产专用性较高,导致资产不可逆渠道更为显著。(3)随着资产回报率的上升,经济政策不确定性对所有上市公司投资规模的抑制效应增强,但内源融资效率的上升减缓了林业上市公司投资受经济政策不确定性的影响。文章提出政策启示:(1)林业上市公司在资产不可逆程度高且无法改变的情况下应深耕技术创新,将资产不可逆变为企业核心竞争力的来源。(2)林业上市公司应转变投资机会的估值策略,以适应政策环境的快速变化。(3)政府制定政策时应注重政策的连续性、一致性,给予易受政策不确定性影响的林业公司更多支持。The study on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the investment of forestry listed companies has important practical significance for promoting the high-quality development of forestry industry under the new development pattern.Based on the real option theory,this paper used the economic policy uncertainty index of China and the financial panel data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2004 to 2020 was empirically analyzed the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the investment scale of listed companies in forestry and the industry differences.The results showed that:(1)The inhibitory effect coefficient of economic policy uncertainty on the investment scale of forestry listed companies was-2.446,and that of non-forestry listed companies was-0.745,indicating that the investment of forestry listed companies was more vulnerable to the uncertainty of economic policies.(2)The high specificity of forestry investment assets led to more significant irreversible channels of assets.(3)With the increase of return on assets,the inhibition effect of economic policy uncertainty on the investment scale of all listed companies was enhanced,but the increase of endogenous financing efficiency slowed down the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the investment of forestry listed companies.The results indicated that:(1)Forestry listed companies should deepen technological innovation and turn the irreversibility of assets into the source of core competitiveness of enterprises when the degree of irreversibility of assets is high and cannot be changed.(2)Forestry listed companies should change the valuation strategy of investment opportunities to adapt to the rapidly changing policy environment.(3)The government should pay attention to the continuity and consistency of policies when formulating policies,and give more support to forestry companies that are vulnerable to policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 公司投资 林业上市公司 实物期权理论 

分 类 号：F326.25[经济管理—产业经济] F823.51