新冠疫情下中国木质家具出口波动成因分析与趋势研究  

Causes and Trend Research of China’s Wooden Furniture Export Fluctuations under COVID-19 Epidemic

作　　者：王浩然 吴金卓[1] 左慧敏 WANG Haoran;WU Jinzhuo;ZUO Huimin(College of Engineering and Technology,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济》2022年第12期77-92,共16页Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省经济社会发展重点研究课题“关于黑龙江省加快建设木材、煤炭、粮食等资源型产品进口落地加工产业集群的对策建议”(编号:22202)。

摘　　要：新冠疫情的爆发给全球经济带来前所未有的冲击,同时也对中国出口贸易产生了较大的影响。中国作为木质家具出口贸易大国,分析疫情前后木质家具出口波动的成因及趋势,对促进中国木质家具出口行业可持续发展尤为重要。文章以疫情爆发为时间分割点,比较2018-2019年和2020-2021年两阶段木质家具出口特征变化,利用恒定市场份额模型分析中国木质家具出口额变化的成因,并基于2017年1月至2022年8月的木质家具出口月度数据,利用季节性差分整合自回归移动平均模型预测未来木质家具出口额变化情况。结果表明:(1)尽管受到疫情爆发的影响,但较第一阶段中国木质家具出口规模上升27.54亿美元,且每年上升趋势均呈周期性变化。木质家具产品中,其他木质家具出口额增幅最大,达到22.84%。出口市场中,美国是中国最大的出口市场,但较第一阶段向美国出口的木质家具金额减少13.68亿美元,向其他国家出口的木质家具总金额有所上升。(2)中国木质家具在疫情前后两阶段的出口波动成因中,结构效应的影响最大(86.29%),其次是次结构效应(30.31%)和竞争力效应(-16.61%)。(3)预测未来木质家具出口额波动仍具有周期性,与2021年相比,未来两年的出口额均有所下降,但2023年降幅会变小,达到3.34%。由此,文章提出应克服新冠疫情的不利影响,提升商品竞争力和扩大出口市场,以维持木质家具增长的趋势,使中国木质家具出口行业快速可持续发展。The outbreak of COVID-19 has shown an unprecedented impact on the economy as well as export trade.As a major exporter of wooden furniture,it is particularly important for China to analyze the causes and trends of wooden furniture export fluctuations before and after COVID-19 in order to promote the sustainable development of the wooden furniture export industry in the future.This paper mainly took the outbreak as the time node,through comparing the changes of wooden furniture export characteristics in two phases of2018-2019 and 2020-2021,analyzed the causes of China’s wooden furniture export fluctuations by using constant market share model.Based on the monthly wooden furniture export data from January 2017 to August 2022,the SARIMA model was used to predict the wooden furniture export value in the future.The results showed that:(1)Although affected by the COVID-19,China’s wooden furniture export scale still increased by $2754 million compared with the first stage,and the annual upward trend change was cyclical.Among wooden furniture products,other wooden furniture export increased by the largest amount of 22.84%.Among the export markets,the United States was China’s largest export market,but the wooden furniture export to the United States declined by $1368 million,and exports of wooden furniture to other countries increased.(2)The export fluctuations between the two stages were mainly affected by the structure effect(86.29%),followed by the substructure effect(30.31%)and competitiveness effect(-16.61%).(3)It was predicted that China’s wooden furniture export fluctuations would still be cyclical,and the export scale slightly lower than that in 2021.The decline rate in2023 would be smaller,reaching 3.34%.Therefore,this paper put forward that the impact of the COVID-19 should be used to enhance the competitiveness of specific commodities and expand the export market in order to maintain the growth trend of wooden furniture export and realize rapid and sustainable development of China’s wooden furniture e

关 键 词：木质家具 出口 恒定市场份额模型 差分整合移动平均自回归模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F426.88[经济管理—产业经济]