国际经贸规则重构及碳达峰背景下的华东地区电力需求分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Electricity Demand in East China under the Reconstruction of International Economic and Trade Rules and Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions

作　　者：陆建忠 姚颖蓓 薛季良[2] 周薪吉 LU Jianzhong;YAO Yingbei;XUE Jiliang;ZHOU Xinji(State Grid Corporation of East China,Shanghai 200120,China;East China Electric Power Design Institute,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Economic,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网华东分部,上海200120 [2]华东电力设计院,上海200120 [3]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2023年第1期13-19,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2019BJL011)。

摘　　要：近年来国内外形势剧变,新冠疫情、“碳达峰”目标以及RCEP和CPTPP等新型国际经贸规则对我国的产业和经济结构产生较大影响,从而对电力需求产生影响。针对2021—2040年华东地区的电力需求,在设定新冠疫情影响中长期化、2030年“碳达峰”目标实现、国际经贸格局变动如中国成功加入RCEP和CPTPP等情景基础上,基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)和全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)等方法,预测2021—2040年各省市的GDP及产业结构等宏观经济数据和发展趋势,并采用电力强度法对该地区电力需求进行预测。结果显示:基准情景、新冠冲击情景和综合情景下,四省一市的电力需求稳定增长;“碳达峰”目标实现情景下,各省市在2025年前相较于基准情景电力需求增长率略微提升,2025年之后的增长率相对放缓,RCEP情景则与之相反;由于各省市产业结构的变动,加入CPTPP对各省市的影响也将呈现不同倾向。China and the world have witnessed rapid changes in recent years.The COVID-19 pandemic,the“peak carbon dioxide emissions”target,and new international economic and trade rules such as RCEP and CPTPP,have had a great impact on China’s industrial and economic structure,and thus effect the electricity demand.This research focuses on the electricity demand in East China from 2021 to 2040.This research is conducted under the backdrop of the mid-to-long term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,the realization of the“peak carbon dioxide emissions”target in 2030,and changes in the international economic and trade pattern,such as China’s successful accession to RCEP and CPTPP.This research employs various methods including the computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,global trade analysis project(GTAP)model,etc.The paper predicts the GDP and industrial structure of each province and city from 2021 to 2040 as well as the development trend.In addition,it also uses the power intensity method to predict the future electricity demand of the region.Results show that under the baseline scenario,the COVID-19 shock scenario and the comprehensive scenario,tthe electricity demand in four provinces and one city has grown steadily;under the“peak carbon dioxide emissions”target realization scenario,the growth rate of electricity demand in each province and city by 2025 will be slightly higher than that in the baseline scenario,and the growth rate after 2025 will slow down;he RCEP scenario shows the exact opposite result.Due to changes in the industrial structure of various provinces and cities,the impact of joining CPTPP on each province and city will show different trends.

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡模型 全球贸易分析模型 电力需求 碳达峰 华东地区 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]