放大与缩小:中国人口老龄问题中被掩盖的事实——兼论中国老龄研究中的指标改良与理论反思  

Amplification and Reduction: The Hidden Facts in China’s Ageing Population and the Implications for Ageing Measurement and Theory

作　　者：陈友华[1] 孙永健 Chen Youhua;Sun Yongjian

机构地区：[1]南京大学社会学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《人口研究》2023年第1期3-22,共20页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现积极老龄化的公共政策及其机制研究”(17ZDA120)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：老龄相关问题的测量与操作化是老龄研究的基础。部分传统老龄指标的衰竭与偏误导致中国当前人口老龄问题中存在诸多被掩盖的事实,其突出表现为5个方面的“放大与缩小”:一是传统的年龄划分标准会放大劳动年龄人口比例而缩小人口抚养比;二是户籍人口统计口径会放大城市人口老龄化程度而缩小农村人口老龄化程度;三是在人口迁移流动愈发频繁的当下,名义上的完整家庭结构指标会放大家庭养老功能而缩小政府养老负担;四是健康预期寿命会放大健康老龄化的成就而缩小病痛老龄化的危机;五是传统的老年年龄标准会放大养老负担而缩小老年人自身作用。重新审视传统老龄指标及其信效度,并尝试构建新的指标以推动中国自主的人口学知识体系建设显得尤为重要。Ageing measurement and manipulation is the foundation of ageing research. Due to the failure of the analytical power of traditional indicators or theories, there are many hidden facts in China’s current ageing problem. The traditional age division standard will overstate the proportion of working-age population, reducing the dependency ratio of the elderly. Registered residence index will over-evaluate the ageing of the urban population and reduce that of the rural population. In the context of substantial migration, the nominal family structure will overrate the old-age supporting function of family, reducing the burden on the government. Healthy life expectancy will magnify the achievement of healthy ageing, reducing the crisis of unhealthy ageing. The traditional age standard will overestimate the burden of providing care for the elderly, reducing the role of the elderly themselves. It is important to reflect the traditional ageing indicators and their reliability and validity, and to explore new indicators to update the ageing research.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 指标测量 放大效应 缩小效应 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]