财政政策、新基建与经济高质量发展  

Fiscal Policy, New Infrastructure and High-quality Economic Development

作　　者：姜伟[1] 陈云菲 Jiang Wei;Chen Yunfei(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao Shandong 266061,China;School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 201800,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266061 [2]上海大学经济学院,上海201800

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第2期136-141,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BJL020)。

摘　　要：文章通过构建包含家庭、“新基建”生产部门、一般生产部门和政府四个主体的动态随机一般均衡模型,探究政府“新基建”投资、财政减税政策对经济增长的影响。研究发现,相比一单位标准差“新基建”生产部门全要素生产率冲击,政府“新基建”投资冲击的激励效果较小,在1年左右到达顶峰,调整周期约为10年。在公众预期下实行的三种“新基建”政策中,计划二,即前期以政府投资为主带动“新基建”生产部门发展,后期降低政府投资比例,以社会资本为主,“新基建”和一般生产部门产出增加,提高了社会投资和消费,调整周期大约为7年,实现相对稳定增长。此外,减税政策仅在短期内带动了经济发展,长期则不利于居民消费和投资。因此,在“新基建”计划早期政府资本应积极参与,后期需根据“新基建”生产部门发展阶段适当调整投资比例,引导和鼓励社会资本参与,逐步转化为以社会资本为主。This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which includes households, the“new infrastructure”production sector, the general production sector and the government, to explore the impact of the government’s“new infrastructure”investment and fiscal tax reduction policy on economic growth. The research findings are as follows: Compared with the total factor productivity shock of“new infrastructure”production sector with one-unit standard deviation, the incentive effect of the government’s“new infrastructure”investment shock is smaller, reaching the peak in about one year, and the adjustment cycle is about 10 years. Among the three“new infrastructure”policies implemented in anticipation of the public, the second plan is to promote the development of“new infrastructure”production sector by government investment in the early stage, reduce the proportion of government investment in the later stage, and focus on social capital. The output of“new infrastructure”and general production sector increases, which improves social investment and consumption. The adjustment cycle is about seven years and relatively stable growth is achieved. In addition, the tax reduction policy only boosts economic development in the short term, but in the long run, it hinders household consumption and investment. Therefore, in the early stage of the“new infrastructure”plan,the government capital should actively participate, and in the later stage, the investment proportion should be appropriately adjusted according to the development stage of the“new infrastructure”production sector, so as to guide and encourage the participation of social capital and gradually transform it into a social capital-dominated one.

关 键 词：新基建 动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE) 财政政策 政府投资 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]