中美属权贸易差额估算  

Estimating the Ownership-Based China-US Trade Balance

作　　者：陈全润 贾怀勤[2,3,4] Chen Quanrun;Jia Huaiqin

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学统计学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学 [3]国家数字贸易专家组 [4]中国对外经济贸易统计学会学术委员会

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第1期4-17,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“中国贸易高质量发展的统计测度研究团队”(CXTD13-04);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中美经贸博弈的经济影响及我国对策研究”(19ZDA062)。

摘　　要：本文利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)公布的区分内外资的国家间投入产出表与跨国公司活动数据,对三国属权贸易模型中涉及的中美之间9种途径18种属权贸易流量进行了全部估算。估算方法采用属权贸易核算法与矩阵平衡法相结合的方式。估算结果显示:中美属权贸易总量明显高于属地贸易总量,中美属权贸易差额明显低于属地贸易差额,传统的属地贸易差额严重高估了中美贸易平衡状况;美国通过在华附属机构部门以及第三国附属机构部门向中国本土所属部门销售和出口大量产品,是美国向中国出口的重要途径;忽略中美之间通过第三国发生的属权贸易将严重高估中美属权贸易差额。属权贸易核算结果对全面认识当前中美贸易平衡问题具有重要参考意义。This study estimates the ownership-based China-US trade flows by using a three-country model,which includes 9 categories of trade paths and 18 categories of trade flows.The main data source is from the inter-country input-output tables distinguishing domestic-owned firms and foreign-owned firms and the multinational enterprise activity data published by OECD.The estimation approach is a combination of ownership-based accounting method and matrix balance method.The findings are as follows.First,the ownership-based China-US trade volume is significantly larger than the traditional residence-based trade volume,and the ownership-based China-US trade surplus is significantly smaller than the residence-based trade surplus.The traditional residence-based trade statistics have overestimated the China-US trade balance to a large degree.Second,US has exported a substantial amount of goods to China via its foreign affiliates in China and in other countries.It is US’s important exporting path to China.Third,the China-US trade flows via third countries play important roles in the ownership-based bilateral trade balance and therefore should be taken into account in the three-country model.The ownership-based trade accounting results can provide important information for fully understanding the current China-US trade balance.

关 键 词：属权贸易 中美贸易差额 国家间投入产出表 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济] F740