欧俄能源关系的沿革、动因与乌克兰危机的影响——聚焦天然气领域  

The Evolution and Dynamics of European-Russian Energy Relationship and the Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict——A Case Study in the Field of Natural Gas

作　　者：丁纯[1,2] 罗天宇 DING Chun;LUO Tianyu

机构地区：[1]复旦大学欧洲问题研究中心 [2]复旦大学“一带一路”及全球治理研究院 [3]清华大学社会科学学院国际关系学系

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2022年第6期23-48,I0002,I0003,共28页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(批准号:20VGQ012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：乌克兰危机使能源,尤其是天然气成为西方与俄罗斯实施制裁与反制裁的主要博弈领域,并衍生出一系列危机和问题。要想全面评估和预测欧俄能源之争的结果和影响,需要回顾和探究欧俄能源合作的历史经纬和动因。本文首先从欧俄能源关系发端的冷战时期开始,对欧俄能源关系的历史脉络进行回顾;其次,从地缘关系、欧盟能源供应保障与欧盟绿色能源政策三个视角入手,探究欧俄能源关系的衍变动因;最后,展望能源关系对欧俄关系的影响和前景。显然乌克兰危机重塑了欧俄之间的地缘关系并影响了美欧俄三边关系。随着北约重要性的再次提升,美国在欧洲事务的话语权得到加强,欧洲借能源关系缓和对俄关系的设想基本破灭。欧盟将降低对俄能源依赖并加速能源转型,但欧盟战略自主的能力已然遭到削弱。The Russia-Ukraine conflict has made energy(especially natural gas) a major area of competition between Russia and Europe in terms of sanctions and counter-sanctions and as well triggered a global energy crisis and increased stagflation.In order to assess and make a forecast of the outcome and impact of the Russian-European energy(gas) dispute in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,it is necessary to review and explore in depth the history of Russian-European energy(gas) cooperation and its dynamics.The paper firstly reviews the historical evolution of the EU-Russia energy relationship from the bilateral energy engagement between the Soviet Union and West Germany during the Cold War.Secondly,the paper examines the reasons for the formation and evolution of EU-Russia energy relations from three perspectives.Finally,the paper points out that the evolution of European-Russian energy relations in the context of this conflict has reshaped the geopolitical relations between Europe and Russia and affected the trilateral relations between the U.S.,Russia and Europe.With the revitalisation of NATO and the strengthening of the U.S.voice in the European affairs,the wish of Europe using energy relations to moderate its relations with Russia has been largely dashed.The EU will try to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and accelerate its energy transition,but its capacity for strategic autonomy has already been weakened by the declining competitiveness.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 欧俄能源关系 历史演进 地缘关系 能源转型 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] D815[政治法律—国际关系]