北方牧区草原内陆河流域径流演变特征及其驱动因素分析  

Analysis of the characteristics of runoff evolution and its driving factors in a typical inland river basin in arid regions

作　　者：陈红光 孟凡浩 萨楚拉[1,2,3] 罗敏 王牧兰 刘桂香[1,4] CHEN Hongguang;MENG Fanhao;SA Chula;LUO Min;WANG Mulan;LIU Guixiang(College of Geographical Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster and Ecological Security on the Mongolia Plateau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China;Grassland Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Hohhot 010010,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]内蒙古自治区遥感与地理信息系统重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [3]内蒙古自治区蒙古高原草原灾害与生态安全重点实验室,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [4]中国农业科学院草原研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2023年第1期39-50,共12页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：内蒙古师范大学基本科研业务费专项资金(2022JBQN093,2022JBBJ014);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2020BS03042,2020BS04009);国家自然科学基金项目(41861014)。

摘　　要：内蒙古乌拉盖河流域是典型的干旱半干旱牧区草原内陆河流域,生态系统极为脆弱,气候变暖和人类活动能直接影响水文变化。本研究采用改进的SWAT水文模型、M-K趋势检验、降水-径流量双累积曲线以及情景分析等方法,系统分析了1981—2020年乌拉盖河流域径流时空变化特征,并量化流域不同时期、不同河段气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的差异。结果表明:SWAT模型在乌拉盖河流域的适用性良好,率定期及验证期的NSE及R2均在0.62以上,PBLAS小于18.8%。近40 a在流域呈暖干化趋势下,径流量在上、中、下游均呈显著减少趋势,且在2000年发生突变。气候变化和过度放牧、盲目开垦以及水利水库建设等人类活动对流域径流变化的贡献率分别为95.84%和4.16%。人类活动对流域不同河段的贡献率也有差异,由上游到下游的贡献率分别为1.69%、4.36%和5.03%。且在不同时间段内的贡献率也有较大的差异,由1980年的88.26%减少到2020年的25.47%,不同时间段内不同人类活动方式导致径流变化趋势及幅度也有差异。研究结果能为牧区草原内陆河流域水资源的可持续利用及合理调度提供参考依据。The Ulagai River Basin in Inner Mongolia is a typical inland river basin in the pastoralist grasslands of the arid and semi-arid regions with extremely fragile ecosystems,and climate warming and human activities can directly affect hydrological changes.In this study,we used the improved SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)hydrological model,M-K trend test,precipitation-runoff double accumulation curve,and scenario analysis to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of runoff in the Ulagai River Basin from 1981 to 2020 and to quantify the differences between climate change and human activities on runoff in different periods and river sections.The differences in the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff in different periods and river sections were quantified.The results show that the SWAT model significantly impacted runoff in the Ulagai River Basin from 1981 to 2020.The results show that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Ulagai River Basin,with NSE and R~2 above 0.62 and PBLAS less than 18.8%for both the periodic and validation periods.Under the warm and dry trend of the basin in the past 40 years,the runoff volume decreased significantly in the upper,middle,and lower reaches,then a sudden change occurred in 2000.Considering the contribution of human activities such as climate change and overgrazing,blind reclamation and construction of water conservancy reservoirs to the change of runoff in the basin was 95.84%and 4.16%,respectively.Also,the contribution of human activities to different river segments in the basin varied,with 1.69%,4.36%,and 5.03%from upstream to downstream.The contribution rates also differed significantly across different periods,from 88.26%in 1980 to 25.47%in 2020.The trend and magnitude of runoff changes due to different human activity patterns in different periods also differed.This study’s results can provide a reference basis for the sustainable use and rational scheduling of water resources in the inland river basin of pastoral gr

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 人类活动 SWAT模型 乌拉盖河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]