全球军事科技贸易网络空间格局演化及影响因素  

The evolution and influencing factors of the global arm trade cyberspace pattern

作　　者：郭卫东 杜德斌[1,2,3] GUOWeidong;DU Debin(Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;Center forWorld Geography and Geo-Strategic Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Urban and Regional Science,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海200062 [3]华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第2期403-422,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA087)。

摘　　要：全球军事科技实力的变化将重构世界格局从而影响世界局势的走向,准确把握世界地缘军事科技格局演变对深刻认识和有效应对百年未有之大变局具有重要的现实意义。本文利用SIPRI武器贸易数据和世界银行数据库,从产品结构、网络格局和影响机制3个方面研究了全球军事科技贸易时空格局演化和驱动机制。研究发现:①全球军事科技贸易规模呈波动上升趋势,贸易产品结构以军用飞机为主导,海军舰艇与装备、导弹和装甲车为组成的一极三核特征,军用飞机是大部分国家或地区主要出口产品或进口依赖产品;②全球军事科技出口格局呈美国、俄罗斯和西欧的三极分布特征,亚洲国家影响力显著提升,地缘军事格局东升西降、南升北降特征明显,进口国和地区集中分布于东亚—东南亚—南亚—中东—南欧—北非一带,空间分布格局与斯皮克曼的边缘地带位置相吻合;③全球军事科技贸易网络呈一超多强特征,欧亚大陆始终是全球军事科技贸易的主要舞台,亚洲国家成为重塑贸易格局的重要力量。④以美国和俄罗斯为核心的军贸竞争格局凸显,美国最大流网络的扁平化趋势揭示着美国主导能力的提升和西欧次主导国家的衰退;⑤军事科技贸易网络演化是进出口国家(地区)的属性与邻近性共同作用的结果,历史、语言和经济邻近对军事科技贸易网络均具有正向作用,地理距离对贸易起明显负向作用,国家发展、科技水平、军费支出强度、政治稳定和资源禀赋对军事科技贸易具有不同程度的影响。Changes in global military technological strength will reshape the world pattern and thus affect the trend of the international situation. Accurately grasping the evolution of the world’s military technological pattern is of great practical significance for a profound understanding and effective response to the great changes unseen in a century. As arms are products that reflect military science and technology, this article uses SIPRI arms trade data and the World Bank database to investigate the evolution of the spatial and temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of global arms trade from three aspects: product structure, network pattern and influence mechanism, and finds that:(1) the scale of global arms trade shows a fluctuating upward trend, the structure of trade products is dominated by aircraft with other major products including naval ships and weapons, missiles and armored vehicles. Aircrafts are the main export products or import-dependent products of most countries.(2) The global arms export pattern is characterized by the tripolar distribution of the United States, Russia and Western Europe. The influence of Asian countries has increased significantly. The geo-military pattern has obvious characteristics of rising in the east and falling in the west, and rising in the south and falling in the north. Importing countries are concentrated in East Asia-Southeast Asia-South Asia-Middle East-Southern Europe-North Africa, and the spatial distribution pattern is consistent with Rimland theory of Nicholas John Spykma.(3) The global arms trade network is characterized by one superpower and multiple major powers. Eurasia has always been the main arena for global arms trade, and Asian countries have become an important force in reshaping the trade landscape.(4) The competition pattern of arms trade centered on the United States and Russia is highlighted. The flattening trend of the largest trade network in the United States reveals the improvement of the United States’ leading ability and the decline of the

关 键 词：军事科技 武器贸易 贸易网络 地缘科技 影响因素 

分 类 号：E1[军事—军事理论] F746[经济管理—国际贸易]