基于多步逆向半云模型的价格型需求响应不确定性建模  

Uncertainty Modeling of Price-based Demand Response Based on Multi-step Backward Semi-cloud Model

作　　者：张宇华 王丛 孙晓鹏 李鸿彪 鲍秀昌 ZHANG Yuhua;WANG Cong;SUN Xiaopeng;LI Hongbiao;BAO Xiuchang(College of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Shanghai Keliang Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海市200090 [2]上海科梁信息科技股份有限公司,上海市200030

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2023年第1期105-114,共10页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：上海市科技创新行动计划资助项目(19DZ2204700)。

摘　　要：针对现有价格型需求响应模型难以同时精确反映用户响应行为的随机性与模糊性,以及基于对称云模型进行需求响应建模存在拟合误差大、求解稳定性差的问题,提出一种基于多步式逆向云发生器半云模型的价格型需求响应不确定性建模方法。定义收益率作为不同用户对收益大小认知的统一评估标准,并建立半云模型下的用户收益率与响应行为的映射关系模型。利用多步式逆向云发生器求取半云模型的数字特征,并采用正向云发生器生成反映用户响应行为的分布云图。仿真算例表明,相比于对称云模型与传统价格型需求响应建模方法,半云模型具有更高的拟合精度;相比于单步式逆向云发生器,多步式逆向云发生器具有更好的稳定性。Aiming at the issue that the existing price-based demand response models are difficult to accurately reflect the randomness and fuzziness of response behaviors of users at the same time, and the modeling of demand response based on symmetric cloud model has the problems such as high fitting error and weak solution stability, an uncertainty modeling method for price-based demand response based on multi-step backward cloud generator and semi-cloud model is proposed. The return rate is defined as the unified evaluation standard for the cognition of the return amount by different users, and the mapping relationship model between the return rate and the response behaviors of users based on the semi-cloud model is established. The multi-step backward cloud generator is used to obtain the digital characteristics of the semi-cloud model, and the forward cloud generator is used to generate the distribution cloud map reflecting the response behaviors of users. The simulation examples show that the semi-cloud model has higher fitting accuracy compared with the symmetric cloud model and the traditional price-based demand response modeling method;the multi-step backward cloud generator has better stability compared with the single-step backward cloud generator.

关 键 词：需求响应 收益率 半云模型 多步式逆向云发生器 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]