基于DSR-灰云模型的西北城市抗震韧性评估  

Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Northwest Cities based on DSR-gray Cloud Model

作　　者：樊燕燕[1] 刘轩谷 FAN Yanyan;LIU Xuangu(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2022年第6期1191-1202,共12页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省自然基金项目(20JR10RA237)资助。

摘　　要：城市抗震系统是一个复杂的系统,对其进行韧性评估是检验城市系统抗震能力的重要手段。在分析城市抗震系统构成的基础上,结合DSR模型,从抗灾因素、承灾因素和恢复因素三方面构建城市系统抗震韧性评估指标体系。为解决指标体系中存在的模糊性、随机性及灰色不确定等复杂问题,引入灰色白化权函数云模型,结合各指标的灰云模型图,计算各指标实际的聚类系数,最后根据最大隶属度原则计算出城市的抗震韧性评估等级。以西北地区14座城市为例,验证该方法的可行性和合理性,结果表明:兰州市与武威市的城市抗震韧性等级为Ⅳ级,白银、天水、张掖、平凉、酒泉、庆阳及定西7市的城市抗震韧性等级为Ⅲ级,嘉峪关、金昌、陇南、合作与临夏5市的城市抗震韧性等级为Ⅱ级,研究成果可为城市抗震韧性评估提供一种新方法。Urban seismic system is a complex system,and its resilience evaluation is an important means to test the seismic capacity of the urban system.On the basis of summarizing the concept of urban seismic resilience,combined with the DSR model,the evaluation index system for the seismic resilience of the urban system is constructed from three aspects:disaster resistance factors,disaster bearing factors and recovery factors.To solve the complex problems of fuzziness,randomness and gray uncertainty in the index system,the gray whitening weight function cloud model is introduced.Combined with the gray cloud model diagram of each index,the actual clustering coefficient of each index is calculated.Finally,the seismic resilience evaluation grade of the city is calculated according to the maximum membership principle.Taking 14 cities in Northwest China as examples,the feasibility and rationality of the presented method are verified.The results show that the urban seismic resilience of Lanzhou and Wuwei is classified as level IV,and that of Baiyin,Tianshui,Zhangye,Pingliang,Jiuquan,Qingyang and Dingxi is rated as level III,while that of Jiayuguan,Jinchang,Longnan,Hezuo and Linxia is at level II.The research results can provide a new method for the evaluation of urban seismic resilience.

关 键 词：城市抗震韧性 DSR模型 灰云模型 韧性评估 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]