经济金融制裁研究的进展与争议  

Economic and Financial Sanctions:Academic Progress and Disputes

作　　者：钟春平[1] 龚啸峰 Zhong Chunping;Gong Xiaofeng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]美国康涅狄格大学经济系

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2023年第1期12-34,153,154,共25页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：本文梳理总结了国家之间经济和金融制裁的相关理论及实际效果,特别对经济制裁中易被忽视的经济数理建模及预测进行了解析,指出过去以博弈论为主的研究思路之不足,尤其是其面对“制裁黑箱”时存在的问题。本文归纳了对制裁研究的主要方法,特别是统计和计量经济学研究方法、数理模型、以动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)为主的数据模拟及以可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE)进行的预测。同时,本文还总结了最新的公众选择模型,对制裁生效机制作了相应的说明,对未来研究方向及可能的突破口进行了展望和探讨,包括用模型预测贸易战等一系列经济金融制裁手段给国家带来的收益和损失,或者以图网络化与程序化等方法更客观地对其进行计算。This article summarizes and combs the relevant theories and practical effects of economic and financial sanctions between countries,especially analyzes the economic mathematical modeling and prediction that are easy to be ignored in economic sanctions,and points out the shortcomings of previous research mainly based on game theory,especially the problems that exist when facing the "black-box of sanctions".The article summarizes the main methods of sanctions research,especially statistical and econometric research methods,mathematical models,data simulation based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)and prediction based on computable general equilibrium model(CGE).The article also summarizes the latest public choice model,explains the effective mechanism of sanctions,and discusses the future research direction and possible breakthrough points,including the use of models to predict the gains and losses brought to the country by a series of economic and financial sanctions such as trade wars,or more objectively calculate them by means of figure networking and programming.

关 键 词：经济制裁 金融制裁 经济建模 DSGE CGE 公众选择模型 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]