数字金融发展有助于降低家庭储蓄率吗?  

Will Digital Finance Help Reduce Household Saving Rates?

作　　者：董文奎 DONG Wen-kui(School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《西部论坛》2022年第6期37-52,共16页West Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873104)。

摘　　要：目前,中国经济高质量发展需要着力扩大国内需求,充分发挥消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用。然而,长期以来中国的家庭储蓄率偏高,不利于内需增长。数字金融的出现和发展为降低家庭储蓄率提供了一条有效途径,但现有文献对数字金融发展影响家庭储蓄率的机制研究不足,相关经验证据也较为缺乏。本文认为,数字金融的发展通过提供更多融资渠道和降低融资门槛为家庭承担风险和应对不确定性提供了更多途径和便利,有助于缓解家庭流动性约束,进而降低家庭储蓄率,且这种效应对于流动性约束较强的家庭(如收入和社会资本较少、预防性储蓄动机较高的家庭)更为显著。采用中国家庭金融调查2013年、2015年、2017年数据和2012年、2014年、2016年城市层面北京大学数字普惠金融指数的分析发现:城市数字金融发展水平提高对家庭储蓄率有显著的负向影响,其中数字金融覆盖广度和使用深度的效应显著,而普惠金融数字化程度的影响不显著;城市数字金融发展水平提高会降低家庭面临流动性约束的概率,而面临流动性约束的家庭有较高的储蓄率,因而数字金融发展可以通过缓解流动性约束的路径降低家庭储蓄率;城市数字金融发展水平提高对家庭储蓄率的负向影响具有显著的家庭异质性,对有预防性储蓄动机家庭、收入较低家庭、社会资本较少家庭的边际影响更大,而对储蓄率很低家庭(储蓄率最低的20%样本家庭)的影响不显著。相比现有文献,本文主要做了如下拓展和改进:一是探讨数字金融发展对家庭储蓄率的影响,拓展了数字金融的经济效应和家庭储蓄率的影响因素研究,并为中国储蓄率呈现下降趋势提供了一种解释;二是采用多期家庭储蓄数据和城市层面数字普惠金融指数进行实证检验,为数字金融发展的家庭储蓄率降低效应及其缓解流动性约束路径和At present, China’s high-quality economic development needs to focus on expanding domestic demand, giving full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment. However, China has long had a high household saving rate, which is not conducive to domestic demand growth. The emergence and development of digital finance have provided an effective way to reduce the household saving rate. Nevertheless, the existing literature is insufficient to investigate the mechanisms by which the development of digital finance affects household saving rates, and relevant empirical evidence is also lacking.This paper argues that the development of digital finance provides more ways and facilities for households to take risks and cope with uncertainty by providing more financing channels and lowering the financing threshold, which helps alleviate household liquidity constraints and thus reduces household saving rates, and this effect is more significant for households with stronger liquidity constraints(such as households with lower income and social capital and higher precautionary saving incentives). Using the data of China Household Finance Survey in 2013, 2015, and 2017 and the Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index at the city level in 2012, 2014, and 2016, the analysis found that: the improvement of urban digital finance development level had a significant negative impact on the household saving rate, in which the coverage breadth and use depth of digital finance had a significant effect, but the digitalization degree of inclusive finance had no significant effect;an increased level of urban digital financial development reduced the probability that households face liquidity constraints, and households facing liquidity constraints had higher saving rates. Thus, digital financial development can reduce household saving rates through the path of alleviating liquidity constraints;the negative impact of the development level of urban digital finance on the household saving rate had significant hou

关 键 词：数字金融 家庭储蓄率 流动性约束 预防性储蓄动机 扩大内需 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F063.4