省域经济双循环的结构演变及其增长效应——基于IRIOT-MRIO表的双元四循环分解  

The Structural Evolution and Growth Effect of Double Cycle at the Provincial Scale in China: Binary Four-cycle Decomposition Based on IRIOT-MRIO Table

作　　者：华德亚[1,2] 刘民政 HUA De-ya;LIU Min-zheng(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China;Institute of Innovative Development Strategies,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]安徽大学创新发展战略研究院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《西部论坛》2022年第6期64-81,共18页West Forum

摘　　要：作为国家的一个地区,省域的经济循环存在省域内、国家和全球三层地理边界,仅进行国内循环和国际循环的分解不能很好地反映其与国内其他省域之间的经济联系,因而有必要对省域经济循环进行更细致的结构分解,然而现有文献对此缺乏研究。本文在国内国际双循环的基础上,根据是否有其他省域参与循环引入单省域多省域双循环,进而对省域经济进行双元四循环的结构分解:单省域参与的国内循环为省内循环,多省域参与的国内循环为省际循环,单省域参与的国际循环为简单国际循环,多省域参与的国际循环为复杂国际循环。基于此,通过构建MRIO-IRIOT表测算出2012、2015、2017年30个样本省域16个行业4种经济循环的产出,用各经济循环的强度(产出占比)来刻画循环结构,并对省域不同行业的循环强度按产值进行加权平均得到各省域各经济循环强度,结果显示:样本期间各省域经济的循环结构存在显著差异,并具有不同的演变趋势;总体上看,循环强度从高到低依次为省内循环、省际循环、复杂国际循环、简单国际循环,呈现出“国内循环为主、国际循环为辅”的发展格局,并具有“国内循环增强、国际循环减弱”的发展态势。进一步考察行业层面的4种经济循环强度变化对行业总产出增长的影响,分析发现:2012年后,4种经济循环对经济增长的贡献从大到小依次为省际循环、复杂国际循环、省内循环、简单国际循环,表明循环结构沿着“以国内大循环为主体”的方向演进,并具有“多省域循环增强、单省域循环减弱,省际循环增强、简单国际循环减弱”的优化趋势;省际循环与复杂国际循环相互强化的效应显著,因而加强地区间的经济联系是推动“国内国际双循环相互促进”的有效路径之一。相比已有文献,本文对省域经济的双元四循环分解拓展和深化了双循环结构�As a region of a country, the provincial economic cycle has three layers of geographic boundaries: intra-provincial, national, and global. The decomposition of the domestic cycle and the international cycle cannot well reflect its economic relationship with other domestic provinces. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a more detailed structural decomposition of the provincial economic cycle, but the existing literature lacks research on this.Based on domestic circulation and international circulation, this paper introduces the dual-circulation of a single province and multi-province according to whether other provinces participate in the cycle, and decomposes the structure of the dual four-cycle of the provincial economy: the domestic cycle in which a single province participates is the intra-provincial cycle, the domestic cycle involving multiple provinces is the inter-provincial cycle, the international cycle involving a single province is the simple international cycle, and the international cycle involving multiple provinces is the complex international cycle. Based on this, by constructing the MRIO-IRIOT table, the output of 4 economic cycles in 16 industries in 30 sample provinces in 2012, 2015, and 2017 was calculated, and the intensity(proportion of output) of each economic cycle was used to describe the cycle structure. And the cycling intensities of different industries in the provincial areas were weighted and averaged by output value to obtain the cycling intensity of each economy in each province. The results showed that there were significant differences in the circular structure of the provincial economies during the sample period, with different trends of evolution. On the whole, the cycling intensities from high to low were the intra-provincial cycle, inter-provincial cycle, complex international cycle, and simple international cycle, showing a development pattern of “the domestic cycle as the dominant, the international cycle as the secondary”, and a development trend of “the domestic

关 键 词：双循环 循环结构 经济循环 省级区域 加值分解 国内循环 国际循环 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济] F223