基于AHP-ABC法的煤炭产业链供应链煤源环节风险因素分析  

Risk factors analysis of coal source link in supply chain of coal industry chain based on AHP-ABC method

作　　者：孙林辉[1] 李勋 王新平[1] SUN Linhui;LI Xun;WANG Xinping(School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西省西安市710054

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2023年第2期18-28,共11页China Coal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金“能源安全与‘双碳’目标双约束下煤炭产业高质量发展的路径与政策研究”(22YJAZH104)。

摘　　要：为分析煤炭产业链供应链煤源环节风险因素,促进风险管控和产业链供应链韧性治理,基于进口和生产2个维度构建煤炭产业链供应链煤源环节风险评价指标体系。利用层次分析法(AHP)计算各维度风险因素的重要度权重,根据排序结果运用ABC分类法得到影响煤源环节的关键风险因素。结果表明,科研投入、自然灾害、工业革命、技术引进、宏观经济形势、环境保护、技术进步、煤矿事故、法律法规是煤源环节生产维度风险管控的关键所在;进口税政策、战争/冲突、来源地当前的探明储量、退税政策、新冠肺炎疫情、价格波动是煤源环节进口维度风险管控的关键所在。研究结果可为煤炭产业链供应链煤源环节的风险管理提供参考,并为该环节的风险管控和韧性治理奠定基础。In order to analyze the risk factors of coal source link of supply chain of coal industry chain and promote risk control and supply chain resilience governance,a risk evaluation index system of coal source link of supply chain of coal industry chain is constructed based on 2 dimensions of import and production.The importance weight of each dimensional risk factor is calculated by using hierarchical analysis(AHP),and the keys risk factors affecting the coal source link are obtained by applying ABC classification method according to the ranking results.The results show that scientific research investment,natural disasters,industrial revolution,technology introduction,macroeconomic situation,environmental protection,technological progress,coal mine accidents,and laws and regulations are keys to the risk control of production dimension of coal source link;import tax policy,war/conflict,current proven reserves of source place,tax rebate policy,new crown pneumonia epidemic,and price fluctuation are keys to the risk control of import dimension of coal source link.The results of the study can provide a reference for risk management in the coal source link of supply chain of coal industry chain and lay a foundation for risk management and resilience governance in this link.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 煤炭产业链供应链 煤源环节 关键因素 风险评价 

分 类 号：TD-954[矿业工程]