构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的增长潜能测算——基于体制扭曲差值内生的核算和仿真  

Estimating the Growth Potential of Building a High-Stardard Socialist Market Economy:Calculation and Simulation Based on Endogenous Institutional Distorted Difference

作　　者：周天勇[1] ZHOU Tian-yong(National Economic Engineering Laboratory,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102208,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学国民经济工程实验室,北京102208

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2023年第1期13-26,共14页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“推进中国经济实现中高速增长的突破性改革研究”(17BJL002)。

摘　　要：对中国这样一个转轨国家的经济增长,用索洛模型等现代经济学主流分析方法进行来源的历史解释和潜能的未来展望,存在着模型本身假设场景与中国经济体制不符的局限。特别是如果以索洛模型计算,中国未来经济的年均增长率为2%—2.5%。而1978—2021年,中国经济保持了年均9.24%的高增长率,潜能来源改革开放使TFP增长率由负转正、市场化改革使要素配置效率提高、城镇住宅资产化改革使其交易获得从零到市场价格的溢值,而土地有偿出让所发生的土地价格从零到市场价格的溢值则直接以生产法核算进入了GDP。中国目前的经济体制仍然是市场与计划并存的二元体制,市场经济标准值与二元体制扭曲值之间仍然存在着差值,如何将这种差值转化为中国经济增长的潜能,应按照党的二十大报告提出的构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的要求,将经济增长潜能转化为经济增长动能。据此,本文的分析思路是:一方面,差值乘以资源是生产、财富、收入和需求的损失,而损失除以标准值则是生产要素、财富资源、居民收入和居民消费需求的闲置、浪费和收缩等;另一方面,可以将其视为体制扭曲性剩余,改革逐步使体制扭曲值向市场标准值接近。在实际操作中,将差值(y-x)内生化入生产和需求的增长函数,仿真了中国2023—2037年的经济增长率,得出以下研究结论:供给侧推进要素市场化、土地和房屋资产化改革、调节水资源配置和开发新增可利用土地;需求侧改革人口迁移、土地交易分配和住宅供给渠道体制,对外开放方面保持创新交流、稳定出口并继续引进外资,未来15年中位水平可获得GDP年均5.66%的增长率。For the economic growth of a country in transition like China, the main analysis methods of modern economics, such as Solow model, are used to explain the source of history and prospect the potential of the future,there is a limitation that the model itself does not conform to the assumptions of China ’ s economic system. In particular, if the Solow model is used, China’s future economic growth rate will be 2% to 2.5% a year. From 1978 to2021, China ’ s economy maintained a high annual growth rate of 9.24%. The reform and opening up of potential sources transformed the growth rate of TFP from negative to positive. The market-oriented reform improved the efficiency of factor allocation. The excess value of land price from zero to market price caused by compensated land transfer is directly calculated into GDP by production method. China’s current economic system is still a dual system coexisting with market and planning, and there is still a difference between the standard value of market economy and the distortion value of the dual system. How to convert this difference into the potential of China ’s economic growth should be converted into the driving force of economic growth according to the requirements of building a high-stardard socialist market economy put forward in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC. On the one hand, the difference value multiplied by resources is the loss of production, wealth, income and demand, while the loss divided by standard value is the idleness, waste and contraction of production factors, wealth resources, resident income and consumer demand. On the other hand, it can be regarded as the system distortion surplus, and the reform gradually makes the system distortion value close to the market standard value. In practice, the difference(y-x) is internalized into the growth function of production and demand, and the economic growth rate of China from 2023 to2037 is simulated. The following conclusions are drawn: on the supply side, the marketization of fac

关 键 词：构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制 经济增长潜能 体制扭曲差值 体制扭曲剩余 改革TFP 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]