基于水足迹视角的中国北方10省三大粮食作物种植结构优化  

Planting structure optimization of three main grain crops in10 northern China provinces based on water footprint method

作　　者：聂媛 李晓云[1] 江文曲 刘念洁[1] NIE Yuan;LI Xiaoyun;JIANG Wenqu;LIU Nianjie(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《资源科学》2022年第11期2315-2329,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(20JZD015);国家自然科学基金项目(71673102);华中农业大学自主科技创新基金项目(2662021JC003)。

摘　　要：水资源短缺与水-土-粮系统不协调是制约中国粮食生产可持续发展的重要因素,种植结构优化作为农业结构型节水的重要举措,对保障中国水资源安全与粮食安全具有重要意义。本文聚焦中国北方10省,揭示水足迹视角下水资源压力与三大粮食作物种植结构的关系,探讨不同目标权重情景下三大粮食作物种植结构的优化趋势,并通过构建多目标种植结构优化模型,得出不同节水情景下北方10省三大粮食作物种植结构优化方案。研究表明:(1)中国北方10省中粮食种植规模较大的地区水资源压力指数普遍偏高,水资源约束呈趋紧态势;(2)当使用熵权法对经济收益、蓝水(灌溉水)消耗和绿水(雨水)利用目标客观赋权时,北方10省将增加高收益高耗水的水稻种植。随着蓝水消耗最小化目标的权重逐渐加大,水稻种植面积和蓝水耗水量会逐步减少;(3)在15%节水情景中,山东、山西、内蒙古、陕西、甘肃、青海应调增玉米种植面积而减少水稻和小麦的种植面积,宁夏和新疆应调增小麦种植面积而调减水稻和玉米的种植面积,河南应调增水稻和玉米的种植面积而减少小麦的种植面积;(4)在节水5%、10%和15%情景中,优化的种植结构能够使北方10省三大粮食作物生产的蓝水足迹总量较2019年分别减少38亿m^(3)、51亿m^(3)和64亿m^(3),平均单位蓝水足迹的现金收益提升4%、3%和2%。本文结果对保障中国粮食安全,实现农业可持续发展具有重要的政策启示。The shortage of water resources and the conflicts in the water-land-crop system are increasingly more prominent in constricting the sustainable development of China’s grain production. As an important measure of water-saving, structure optimization is of great significance to ensure water resource sustainable development and food security in China. This study focused on 10 northern China provinces, revealed the relationship between water resources pressure and three main grain crops’ structure from the perspective of water footprint, and explored the optimization of the structure under different priority policy targets. We constructed a multi-objective structure optimization model to obtain the structure optimization scheme of the grain crops in the northern region under different target-weight scenarios. The results show that:The water resource pressure indices are generally high and tightening in the regions where there are large scales of grain cropping. When using the entropy weight method to objectively assign weights to the economic benefits, blue water(irrigation water) consumption, and green water(rainwater) utilization goals, the results show that the northern region should increase the planting area of high-yield and high-water-consuming rice. As the weight of the blue water consumption minimizing target gradually increases, rice planting area and blue water consumption will gradually decrease. Under the 15% water-saving scenario, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi,Gansu, and Qinghai should increase corn planting areas and reduce rice and wheat planting areas;Ningxia and Xinjiang should increase wheat planting areas and reduce rice and corn planting areas;and Henan should increase rice and corn planting areas and reduce wheat planting area. The blue water footprints of major grain crops decrease by 3.8 billion cubic meters, 5.1 billion cubic meters,and 6.4 billion cubic meters, and the net income per unit of blue water footprint increases by 4%,3%, and 2% compared to 2019 through structure op

关 键 词：水足迹 粮食生产 水资源压力 种植结构优化 多目标规划 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]