基于MCI的新疆干旱变化特征分析  

Change Characteristics of Drought in Xinjiang Based on MCI

作　　者：阿迪拉·阿布都热合曼 昝梅[1,2] ADILA·Abudureheman;ZAN Mei(School of Geography and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;Key Laboratory of Lake En/vironment and Resources in Arid Region cf Xinjiang,Urumqi 830054,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《水文》2023年第1期96-101,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室招标课题(XJDX0909-2021-01);新疆师范大学博士科研启动基金项目(XJNUBS2003)。

摘　　要：基于新疆92个国家气象站1961-2019年逐日气温和降水数据,通过气象干旱综合监测指数(MCI)分析新疆干旱过程及干旱强度,结果表明:(1)全疆年平均干旱日数在空间分布特征为:各地轻旱、中旱的年平均干旱日多数分布在研究区西北部,少数分布在研究区东南部;重旱年平均干旱日数以昆仑山脉为轴线,自西向东呈递减趋势,北疆特旱年平均干旱日数大于南疆;(2)年平均干旱强度呈自东南向西北依次加重的分布特征,春、夏季区域间干旱强度空间差异较小,秋季区域间干旱强度差异性较大;(3)干旱强度与其影响范围时序变化特征趋向一致;通过旋转经验正交函数(REOF)的时空分析,将新疆分成三个模态:第一模态南北疆成相反形式的分布特征,第二模态为东西部相反的分布特征,第三模态呈伊犁河谷偏湿的分布特征,且各模态干旱强度随时间变化趋势不同。Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of 92 national meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2019,the drought process and drought intensity in Xinjiang were analyzed through the meteorological Drought comprehensive Monitoring Index(MCI).The results showed that:(1)The spatial distribution characteristics of the annual average dry days in Xinjiang were as follows:The annual average dry days of light and moderate drought were mostly distributed in the northwest and a fiew in the southeast of the study area.The average number of drought days decreased from west to east along the axis of Kunlun Mountains.The average number of drought days in northern Xinjiang was larger than that in southern Xinjiang.(2)The annual average drought intensity increased from southeast to northwest in Xinjiang.The spatial difference of drought intensity was small in spring and summer,but large in autumn.(3)The temporal variation characteristics of drought intensity in Xinjiang tended to be consistent with its affected area;Based on the spatial and temporal analysis of REOF,Xinjiang is divided into three modes:the first mode is opposite in the southern and northern regions,the second mode is opposite in the eastern and western regions,and the third mode is wet in the Yili Valley,and the variation trend of drought intensity of each mode is different with time.

关 键 词：气象干旱综合监测指数(MCI) 干旱日数 干旱强度 旋转经验正交函数(REOF) 时空分布特征 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]