金沙江下游梯级水电站对区域气候的影响分析  

Analysis on impacts of cascade hydropower stations on regional climate in lower reaches of Jinsha River

作　　者：徐火清 周佳 孙然好[4] 孙干 XU Huoqing;ZHOU Jia;SUN Ranhao;SUN Gan(Three Gorges Construction Engineering Corporation,Chengdu 610023,China;Chengdu Institute of Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国三峡建工(集团)有限公司,四川成都610023 [2]中国科学院成都生物研究所,四川成都610041 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第2期132-140,共9页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41922007,42071238);中国三峡建工(集团)有限公司技术服务项目(JG/18103B,JG/1804B,JG/1805B,JG/1806B)。

摘　　要：已有研究表明坝式水电站蓄水对局地气候有重要影响,但目前对梯级水电站蓄水的气候效应还不清楚,尤其是在干热河谷地区。为深入研究梯级水电站对区域气候的影响,以2005~2020年金沙江下游向家坝-溪洛渡梯级水电站所在流域及周边区域38个气象站监测数据为基础,采用ANUSPLIN(Australian National University Spline)模型模拟流域内的气温、降水参数,进而采用PELT(Pruned Exact Linear Time)算法、CV(Coefficient of Variation)和Trend方法探究梯级水库蓄水前后气候的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)ANUSPLIN模型能较好地模拟气温和降水,气温、降水模拟的相对误差分别介于2.26%~10.62%和9.74%~38.14%之间,且该模型对高温、旱季的模拟效果分别优于低温、雨季。(2)蓄水后流域年均气温的降温幅度较蓄水前有所增大,其中冬、夏季表现为气温增加,春、秋季表现为气温降低;年降水量降低的趋势也较蓄水前极大减缓,并且夏、秋、冬三季的降水量均表现为增加。(3)从突变检验结果来看,蓄水后冬、夏季气温均有突变现象;春、夏、秋季以及年降水量也都发生了突变。(4)蓄水后,流域气温、降水均呈现变异减弱、稳定性增强的特征,且距离库区越近,稳定性越强。研究成果有助于加深理解大型梯级水电开发所引起的气候变化效应。It has been shown that large dams and related reservoirs have important impacts on local climate,but the climate effect of cascade hydropower stations is still unclear,especially in dry-hot valley areas.In order to deeply study the impacts of cascade hydropower stations on regional climate,based on the monitoring data of 38 meteorological stations in the basin and surrounding areas of Xiangjiaba-Xiluodu cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River from 2005 to 2020,the ANUSPLIN(Australian National University Spline)model was used to simulate the air temperature and precipitation parameters.The PELT(Pruned Exact Linear Time)algorithm,CV(Coefficient of Variation)and Trend methods were further used to explore the spatio-temporal variations of climatic parameters before and after the impoundment.The results show that:(1)the ANUSPLIN model can simulate air temperature and precipitation with high accuracy,with the relative error of 2.26%~10.62%and 9.74%~38.14%,respectively.Moreover,the accuracy for high temperature and dry season is better than low temperature and rainy season.(2)Compared with the pre-impoundment cooling trend in the basin,the cooling rate increased after the impoundment.Specifically,the air temperature increased in winter and summer,and decreased in spring and autumn.In addition,the decreasing rate for annual precipitation also slowed down greatly compared with the pre-impoundment,and the precipitation in summer,autumn and winter all increased significantly.(3)According to the results of mutation test,the air temperature in winter and summer,and the precipitation in spring,summer,autumn and annual precipitation has abrupt changes after the impoundment.(4)After the impoundment,air temperature and precipitation variability was weakened,whereas the stability was increased.Moreover,the closer to the reservoir area,the stronger the stability was.The research results help to deepen the understanding of the climate change effects caused by large-scale cascade hydropower development.

关 键 词：梯级水电站 气候效应 气温 降水 ANUSPLIN模型 金沙江下游 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] P461.8[水利工程—水文学及水资源]