经济政策不确定性、风险敏感异质性与商业信用结构调整  

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Risk-Sensitive Heterogeneity and Commercial Credit Structure Adjustment

作　　者：万红燕[1] 王艳 WAN Hong-yan;WANG Yan(Agricultural and Rural Development Research Center,Jiangxi Academy of Social Science;School of Economic and Management,Nanchang University)

机构地区：[1]江西省社会科学院农业农村发展研究所 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《当代会计》2022年第19期21-32,共12页Contemporary Accounting

基　　金：江西省社科规划一般项目“客户集中度与债务风险关联度研究”(项目编号:21JD073);国家社会科学基金项目“不同商业模式下管理会计工具综合应用与企业创新绩效研究”(项目编号:19BGL066)。

摘　　要：本文基于Baker等测算的经济政策不确定性指数,从宏观系统性违约风险管理视角出发,使用2008—2020年的季度数据,从风险敏感异质性视角重点考察了经济政策不确定性对企业商业结构调整的具体机理.研究发现:第一,当经济政策不确定性每提高1个标准差时,企业会显著降低约1.702%的商业信用净额;第二,从风险异质性来看,受宏观系统性风险影响越敏感的公司,经济政策不确定性促使其调整商业信用净额的行为越显著;第三,从敞口风险来看,出口收入占比越低的公司,经济政策不确定性促使其调整商业信用结构以规避宏观系统性风险的动机越强.机制检验显示:经济政策不确定性产生的系统性违约风险促使微观企业会同时显著降低应收账款项目和应付账款项目,但对应收账款项目的降低作用优于应付账款项目,致使商业信用净额显著更低,综合以上研究结果表明,调整商业信用结构以规避宏观系统性风险属于一种风险转嫁行为.本文研究结论不仅揭示了宏观系统性风险对企业风险行为的微观传导机制,而且拓展并深化了经济政策不确定性与微观企业行为的内在互动机理,因而对微观企业风险管理具有重要启示意义.Based on the economic policy uncertainty index measured by Baker et al.and from the perspective of macro systemic default risk management,this paper uses quarterly data from 2008 to 2020 to analyze the the specific mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on the adjustment of enterprises'commercial credit structure from the perspective of risk-sensitive heterogeneity.This paper finds that:first,when economic policy uncertainty increases by 1 standard deviation,enterprises significantly reduce their net business credit by about 1.702%;Second,from the perspective of risk heterogeneity,the more sensitive companies are affected by macro systemic risks,the more significant the adjustment of net commercial credit due to economic policy uncertainty.Third,from the perspective of exposure risk,the lower the proportion of export revenue,the stronger the incentive for economic policy uncertainty to adjust its business credit structure to avoid macro systemic risks.The mechanism test shows that the systemic default risk caused by economic policy uncertainty prompts microenterprises to significantly reduce both receivables payable items and accounts payable items at the same time,but the reduction effect of accounts receivable items is better than that of accounts payable items,resulting in significantly lower net commercial credit.The conclusion of this paper not only reveals the micro-transmission mechanism of macro systemic risk to enterprise risk behavior,but also expands and deepens the intrinsic interaction mechanism between economic policy uncertainty and micro-enterprise behavior,so it has important enlightenment significance for micro-enterprise risk management.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 风险敏感异质性 商业信用结构 

分 类 号：F23[经济管理—会计学]