计算实验方法的溯源、现状与展望  

Computational Experiments:Past,Present and Perspective

作　　者：薛霄 于湘凝 周德雨 彭超[1] 王晓[3] 周长兵[4] 王飞跃[3] XUE Xiao;YU Xiang-Ning;ZHOU De-Yu;PENG Chao;WANG Xiao;ZHOU Zhang-Bing;WANG Fei-Yue(College of Intelligence and Computing,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072;School of Software,Shandong University,Jinan 250101;State Key Laboratory for Management and Control of Complex Systems,Institute of Automation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]天津大学智能与计算学部,天津300072 [2]山东大学软件学院,济南250101 [3]中国科学院自动化研究所复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室,北京100190 [4]中国地质大学(北京)信息工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《自动化学报》2023年第2期246-271,共26页Acta Automatica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFF0900800);国家自然科学基金(61972276,61832014,62032016);复杂系统国家重点实验室开放课题(20210101);教育部新文科改革与实践项目(2021170002);山东省智能建筑技术重点实验室基金(SDIBT202001);天津大学研究生文理拔尖创新奖励计划(C1-2022-010)资助。

摘　　要：随着信息技术的发展,复杂系统越来越多地呈现出社会、物理、信息相融合的特征.因为这些系统涉及到了人和社会的因素,其设计、分析、管理、控制和综合等问题正面临前所未有的挑战.在这种背景下,计算实验应运而生,通过“反事实”的算法化,为量化分析复杂系统提供了一种数字化和计算化方法.对于计算实验方法的发展现状与未来挑战进行了全面梳理:首先介绍了计算实验方法的概念起源与应用特征;然后详细阐述了计算实验的方法框架与关键步骤;接着展示了计算实验方法的典型应用,包括现象解释、趋势预测与策略优化;最后给出了计算实验方法所面临的一些关键问题与挑战.旨在梳理出计算实验方法的技术框架,为其快速发展与跨学科应用提供支撑.With the development of information technology,more and more complex systems show the characteristics of the integration of society,physics and information.Because these systems involve human and social factors,their design,analysis,management,control and synthesis are facing unprecedented challenges.In this context,the computational experiment emerged.It algorithmizes“counterfactuals”as a digital and computational method for quantitative analysis of complex systems.This article reviews the development status and future challenges of computational experiment method.Firstly,it introduces the conceptual origin and application characteristics of computational experiment method;then elaborates on the method framework and key steps of computational experiments;then shows typical applications of computational experiment methods,including phenomenon explanation,trend forecast and strategy optimization;finally,some key problems and challenges faced by computational experiment method are given.The purpose of this paper is to provide the technical framework of computational experiment method,which will facilitate its rapid development and interdisciplinary application.

关 键 词：计算实验 人工社会 多主体建模 实验设计 路线图 

分 类 号：N941.4[自然科学总论—系统科学] TP30[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]