基于模糊故障树的水下生产系统可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Subsea Production System Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

作　　者：柳梦雪 胡忠前 刘健[1,2] 刘超 肖文生 胡安斌[1,2] LIU Mengxue;HU Zhongqian;LIU Jian;LIU Chao;XIAO Wensheng;HU Anbin(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;National Engineering Laboratory for Marine Geophysical and Exploration Equipment,Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;CNOOC Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,山东青岛266580 [2]海洋物探及勘探设备国家工程实验室,山东青岛266580 [3]中海油研究总院有限责任公司,北京100020

出　　处：《中国海洋平台》2023年第1期70-76,共7页China offshore Platform

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶科研项目“水下油气生产系统全生命周期可靠性保障技术体系研究”(编号:[2017]614号)。

摘　　要：开展基于模糊故障树的水下生产系统可靠性分析。分析水下生产系统的工作原理和结构组成,自上而下建造故障树模型;采取上行法对系统进行定性分析确定最小割集;利用梯形模糊数对系统进行模糊定量分析,得出系统模糊失效概率和基本事件模糊重要度。通过分析结果可找出系统的薄弱环节,对其采取措施进行重点防御保护和定时监测维护,也可指导水下生产系统的优化改进。The reliability analysis of the subsea production system is carried out based on the fuzzy fault tree. The working principle and structure composition of the subsea production system are analyzed, and the fault tree model is constructed from top to bottom. The uplink method is used to determine the minimum cut set of the system qualitatively. The trapezoidal fuzzy number is used to carry out fuzzy quantitative analysis on the system, and the fuzzy failure probability and fuzzy importance of the basic events are obtained. By analyzing the results, the weak links of the system can be found out, the measures can be taken to protect and monitor the system regularly, and the optimization and improvement of the subsea production system can also be guided.

关 键 词：水下生产系统 模糊故障树分析 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]