登陆华南热带气旋年频数预测  

Prediction of the annual frequency of landfall tropical cyclones in South China

作　　者：张海燕 胡金磊 姚小娟 赖志娟 庄桦 ZHANG Haiyan;HU Jinlei;YAO Xiaojuan;LAI Zhijuan;ZHUANG Hua(South China Sea Marine Forecasting and Disater Reduction Center,Ministry of Natural Resource,Guangzhou 510300,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application,Ministry of Natural Resource,Guangzhou 510300,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部南海预报减灾中心,广东广州510310 [2]自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室,广东广州510310

出　　处：《海洋预报》2023年第1期101-108,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1401503);广东省科技计划资助项目(2017B020244002);广东省促进经济发展专项资金(海洋经济发展用途)资助项目(GDME-2018B001);广东省海洋经济发展(海洋六大产业)专项资金资助项目(粤自然资合[2020]053号)。

摘　　要：利用中国气象局39 a的热带气旋资料,结合多元线性回归和自回归方法,构建了一个考虑登陆华南热带气旋年频数多时间尺度特性的组合预测模型。该组合模型能较好地拟合1980—2012年登陆华南热带气旋年频数实况,拟合相关系数达0.93,平均绝对误差为0.57个,平均相对误差为12.7%。利用该模型对2013—2018年进行后报试验,平均绝对误差为0.61个,平均相对误差为12.4%。Based the tropical cyclones(TCs) data over recent 39 years from the China Meteorological Administration and using the multiple linear regression and autoregressive methods, a combined prediction model considering the multi-time-scale characteristics of the annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China is constructed. The combined model can well fit the actual annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China during the period from 1980 to 2012 with the fitting correlation coefficient of 0.93, the mean absolute error of 0.57 and the mean relative error of 12.7%. The test results show that the model can reasonably predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing in South China, and it can be used as a reference for corresponding forecasting operations. The mean absolute error and mean relative error of the hindcast experiments from 2013 to2018 are 0.61 and 12.4%, respectively. These results indicate that the model could properly predict the annual frequency of landfall TCs in South China and can be operationally used as a reference.

关 键 词：华南 登陆热带气旋 多时间尺度 频数预测 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]