基于Bayes的饮食装备维修性验证与评估研究  

Research on Maintainability Verification and Evaluation of Catering Equipment Based on Bayes

作　　者：宁初明 刘永新 沈灿铎 李燕军 NING Chu-ming;LIU Yong-xin;SHEN Can-duo;LI Yan-jun(Institute of Quartermaster Engineering and Technology,Academy of Military Sciences PLA China,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院系统工程研究院军需工程技术研究所,北京100010

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第1期19-24,共6页Computer Simulation

基　　金：军队计划科研项目(JK20191A080464)。

摘　　要：针对饮食装备维修性数据小子样问题,利用Bayes理论和可信度加权的多源信息融合理论对饮食装备维修性进行了验证与评估分析。首先对基于Bayes的小子样维修性评估模型进行了分析,并得到维修性评估所需的最小试验样本量计算方法,然后对平均维修时间的区间估计进行了分析研究,最后对某型饮食装备关键系统的平均维修时间数据进行了验证分析。结果表明,采用Bayes理论的维修性评估可显著减少所需试验样本量;利用Bayes方法进行平均维修时间估计是可行的,且随着置信水平的下降,平均维修时间估计区间范围也在缩小。Aiming at the problems of small sample maintainability for the catering equipment, the maintainability of catering equipment was verified and evaluated though Bayes theory and reliability weighted multi-source information fusion theory. Firstly, the small sample maintainability evaluation model based on Bayes was analyzed, and the calculation method of minimum sample size for maintainability evaluation was obtained. Then the interval estimation of average maintenance time was analyzed. At last, the average maintenance time of the key system of catering equipment was verified and analyzed. The results show that the maintainability verification based on Bayes is effective and reasonable to reduce the sample size, and it is feasible to estimate the average maintenance time by Bayes, and the range of the average maintenance time estimation is decreasing with the decrease of confidence level.

关 键 词：饮食装备 维修性 仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]