基于改进SEIR模型的COVID-19疫情度量分析  

Measurement and Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention Effect Based on Improved SEIR Model

作　　者：马力文 周颖[1] 张亚琪[2] MA Li-wen;ZhOU Ying;ZHANG Ya-qi(College of Automation&Artificial Intelligence,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing Jiangsu 210023,China;Jiangsu National Synergetic Innovation Center for Advanced Materials(SICAM),Nanjing University of Posts&Telecommunications,Nanjing Jiangsu210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学自动化人工智能学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京邮电大学江苏先进材料协作研究中心,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第1期364-372,共9页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(62073172)。

摘　　要：针对原有SEIR模型只能仿真群体转化的问题,提出一种可以增加仿真传染强度变化的改进SEIR模型,并使用该模型对第一波疫情大潮中中国、韩国、意大利等国家进行了疫情特征描述和防疫效果度量分析。考虑各国国情不同,在中位数模型中引入弹性变量求解平均潜伏期,设置不同的SEIR状态转换比例系数求解基本传染数,并使用高斯烟羽模型对传染强度变化过程进行可视化处理。疫情数据非常繁杂,难以清晰明了地分析数据之间的关系和度量各国防疫效果。根据控制传染源,切断传播途径,保护易感人群三个指标,使用相应的回溯参数对各国疫情趋势进行演绎,并将演绎结果与实际进行比较得出直观的度量结论。仿真结果认为中国、韩国的防疫效果最好。In view of the problem that the original SEIR model can only simulate group transformation, this paper proposed an improved SEIR model that can increase the change of simulated infection intensity, and this model was used to describe the epidemic characteristics and measure the epidemic prevention effect of China, South Korea, Italy and other countries in the first wave of epidemics tide. Taking into account the different national conditions of each country, elastic variables were introduced into the median model to solve the average incubation period, different SEIR state transition scale coefficients were set to solve the basic infection number, and the Gaussian plume model was used to visualize the infection intensity change process. The epidemic data are very complicated, and it is difficult to clearly analyze the relationship between the data and measure the epidemic prevention effect of various countries. Based on the three indicators of controlling the source of infection, cutting off the route of transmission, and protecting the susceptible population, this article used the corresponding retrospective parameters to deduce the epidemic trend of various countries, and compared the deductive results with the actual situation to draw an intuitive measurement conclusion. The simulation results believe that China and South Korea have the best epidemic prevention effects.

关 键 词：潜伏期 基本传染数 高斯烟羽模型 模型 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]