我国流动人口年龄别流动率模式及其演变  

The Pattern of Age-specific Migration Rate of Floating Population and Its Changes in China

作　　者：周皓[1,2] ZHOU Hao

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会与发展研究中心,北京100871 [2]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第1期185-201,206,共18页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“中国流动人口调查的比较研究”(项目编号:19BRK039)。

摘　　要：年龄别流动率包括水平与模式两个方面。在说明数据基础、界定流量流动人口定义后,利用1990年以来4次全国人口普查和两次1%人口抽样调查微观数据,考察流量流动人口与全部流动人口的结构性差异,描述我国人口年龄别流动率的历时变化与特点,得到的结果表明:(1)流量与全部流动人口的年龄别流动率模式存在显著差异,主要体现在5—15岁学龄段的下凹槽形状和峰值年龄后的年龄别流动率下降拐点不同两个方面;(2)近二十年来,年龄别流动率的水平呈全年龄段普遍提高,模式呈峰值大幅提高(尖峰形)、峰值后拐点变化和参与流动的最高年龄推迟。以上结果说明,未来人口预测应以流量流动人口为参数基础;应以整体性视角和差异性视角理解与解决流动人口问题;应构建综合性、全年龄、全方位的流动人口政策体系,以系统的制度安排来全面保障流动人口的权益。Age-specific migration rate can be examined from the aspects of level and pattern.After testing the data from different sources and defining the flowing of floating population in China,this paper describes the structure difference between flowing and total floating population,and the trend of time-varying migration age pattern in last 30years,based on the data of four censuses and the data of two 1%sample censuses since 1990.Results show that:firstly,there are two significant differences of the age structure between flowing and total floating population,that is,the concave of 5-15-year-old children and different age points of inflection after the peak age.Secondly,the agespecific migration rate got improved generally among all age group in last 20 years,with a mode of a sharp increase in peak value(peak shape),a change of inflection points after the peak age,and the delayed age to participate in mobility.So,the flowing of floating population is preferred in the parameter design of population projection in the future.We should understand and solve the problem of floating population in China from the perspective of integrity and difference.A comprehensive,all-age,and all-round policy system is needed so as to ensure the rights and interests of the floating population in an all-round way through systematic institutional arrangements.

关 键 词：流动人口 流量流动人口 年龄别流动率 性别 人口普查 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]