区域贸易协定数字贸易规则的第三国贸易效应:转移还是溢出  

Third-country Trade Effects of Digital Trade Rules in Regional Trade Agreements:Diversion or Spillover

作　　者：彭羽[1] 杨碧舟 PENG Yu;YANG Bizhou

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所 [2]上海社会科学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2023年第1期36-54,共19页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“一带一路”建设研究专项“‘一带一路’建设与国际经贸规则研究”(19VDL019)。

摘　　要：本文基于2005—2019年全球各经济体的双边数字服务出口数据,采用引力模型实证检验区域贸易协定数字贸易规则的第三国贸易效应。研究结果表明:区域贸易协定数字贸易规则整体上对第三国存在贸易转移效应,但歧视性和非歧视性条款对成员方与第三国之间的数字贸易存在异质性影响;跨境数据流动等歧视性条款存在显著的贸易转移效应,而电子签名/电子认证等非歧视性条款则带来负向贸易转移效应(即正向贸易溢出效应),该结论经过一系列检验后仍然稳健;区域贸易协定非歧视性数字贸易规则条款的实施,会通过改善成员方的数字贸易监管环境这一中介机制促进其从第三国的数字服务进口。以上结论证实了区域贸易协定非歧视性数字贸易条款产生的多边溢出效应,这为正在进行的WTO电子商务谈判提供了经验证据。Based on the data of bilateral digital service export of economies around the world from 2005 to 2019,this paper offers empirical evidence on third-country trade effects of digital trade rules in regional trade agreements(RTA)using the gravity model.The results show that trade diversion occurs to third countries under digital trade rules in RTA as a whole,while discriminatory and non-discriminatory provisions have heterogeneous impacts on the digital trade between RTA signatories and third countries.Trade diversion is notable under discriminatory provisions such as cross-border data flow,while non-discriminatory provisions such as electronic signature/electronic authentication bring a negative trade diversion effect(i.e.positive trade spillover effect).The findings remain robust after a series of tests.The implementation of non-discriminatory provisions of digital trade rules in RTA improves the digital trade regulatory environment of RTA signatories,and thus facilitates their digital service import from third countries.The above findings verify the multilateral spillover effects of non-discriminatory provisions of digital trade rules in RTA,which provides empirical evidence for the ongoing WTO e-commerce negotiations.

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 数字贸易规则 负向贸易转移 非歧视性条款 第三国效应 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]