跨期选择的变易程度正向预测中华文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效:亚非欧美大洋洲18国跨国研究  

Changes in the intertemporal choice of people in or close to Chinese culture can predict their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19:A cross-national study in 18 Asian,African,European,American,and Oceanian countries

作　　者：沈丝楚 希喜格 丁阳 马家涛 杨舒雯 匡仪 许明星 John Taplin 李纾[2,4,5] SHEN Si-Chu;Khishignyam BAZARVAANI;DING Yang;MA Jia-Tao;YANG Shu-Wen;KUANG Yi;XU Ming-Xing;John ETAPLIN;LI Shu(Department of Psychology,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science,Institute of Psychology,Beijing 100101,China;School of Arts and Sciences,Division of Social Sciences,Department of Education and Psychology,National University of Mongolia,Ulaanbaatar,Mongolia;Department of Psychology,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Department of Psychology and Behavioral Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310007,China;School of Transportation,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China;The University of Adelaide,Adelaide SA 5005,Australia)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学心理学院,福州350108 [2]中国科学院心理研究所行为科学重点实验室,北京100101 [3]蒙古国立大学教育与心理学系,蒙古国乌兰巴托 [4]中国科学院大学心理系,北京100049 [5]浙江大学心理与行为科学系,杭州310007 [6]福建工程学院交通运输学院,福州350118 [7]阿德莱德大学,澳大利亚阿德莱德5005

出　　处：《心理学报》2023年第3期435-454,I0002,共21页Acta Psychologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71761167001);国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA358,18ZDA332);福建省社会科学规划一般项目(FJ2020B057)资助。

摘　　要：跨期选择是对不同时间点的得失的权衡与选择。伊索寓言《蚂蚁和蚱蜢》假借群居型昆虫的跨期选择偏爱暗喻投资未来的慢策略比只顾眼前的快策略更利于生存。用跨期选择领域通用的语言解读这一寓言便是:选择大而迟选项的蚂蚁比选择小而早选项的蚱蜢更可能扛过严冬而生存下来。为了探索何种跨期选择策略更有助于我们扛过疫情,本研究调查了亚非欧美大洋洲这5大洲18个国家共计26355名受测者对混合得失双结果的跨期选择偏爱,测量了人们平时和疫时跨期选择偏爱的变易程度(2类变易的程度指标),以及人们自评的扛疫成效。跨文化比较结果的主要发现是:不同通货的选择变易程度(指标1)和不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)能联合预测中国/新加坡文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;不同时期的选择变易程度(指标2)也可以单独预测印度/马来西亚/菲律宾/尼日利亚文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效;这2类选择偏爱变易的程度指标不能预测其他文化圈国民的自评扛疫成效(或者预测方向和假设相反)。基于易经“穷则变,变则通”的要旨和跨国比较的发现,我们认为:面临历史危机时善于变通的特长抑或成就了中华民族特有的竞争优势;在应对危机时,与中国文化距离越相近的国家或民族抑或也能越受益于类似的竞争优势。Humans are facing an unprecedented historical crisis and challenge.To identify the strategies that we can use to cope with historical crisis and challenge,we should investigate two well-studied strategies:“slow strategy,”which is essentially an investment in the future,and“fast strategy”or“live fast,die young.”According to“The Ant and the Grasshopper,”Aesop’s fable,which is under the pretext of intertemporal choice of social insects,the“slow”rather than the“fast”strategy is recommended for those who want to survive the environmental crisis.Intertemporal choice requires tradeoffs among outcomes whose effects occur at different times.In the commonly accepted language of intertemporal choice,the Ant,whose choice is the“larger but later”(LL)option,is more likely to survive the harsh winter than the Grasshopper,whose choice is the“smaller but sooner”(SS)option.To determine the optimal intertemporal choice strategy that can help us to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic,we included 26,355 participants from 18 Asian,African,European,American,and Oceanian countries in the present study.We investigated the participants’preferences in intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes,evaluated the degree of change in their intertemporal choice by differentiating the common currency in peacetime and epidemic time(i.e.,two kinds of change indicators used for differentiating currencies and stages,respectively).We then asked them to rate their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19.Considering that individuals’surviving achievements were affected by individual-and religious-level factors,we analyzed all data by using multilevel linear analysis to reflect the data’s hierarchical structure.After considering individual differences in personal factors and religious factors,we constructed two-level models to explore the effects of the change in intertemporal choice on self-rated surviving achievement,and measured the moderating role of cultural orientation in terms of

关 键 词：混合得失双结果的跨期选择 跨期选择偏爱的变易 自评扛疫成效 变通 多国跨国比较 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]