考虑云层遮挡的光伏发电功率超短期预测技术  

Ultra-short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation Considering Cloud Cover

作　　者：白捷予 董存 王铮 蒋建东[1] 王勃 刘冠华 BAI Jieyu;DONG Cun;WANG Zheng;JIANG Jiandong;WANG Bo;LIU Guanhua(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;National Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学电气工程学院,郑州450001 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京100192 [3]国家电力调度控制中心,北京100031

出　　处：《高电压技术》2023年第1期159-168,共10页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(SGSHDK00KJJS1900548)。

摘　　要：云层对光伏电站的遮挡会导致光伏发电功率的随机波动,进而给电网稳定运行带来挑战,特别是在新能源渗透率不断提升的战略背景下,电网安全性和稳定性所面临的挑战更为严峻。为解决云遮挡下光伏功率快速波动预测精度低的难题,基于卫星云图提出一种考虑云遮挡的光伏功率超短期预测法。首先,根据场站位置信息提取目标区域具有潜在影响的云团,并通过云轨迹跟踪算法确定其移动矢量,实现超短期尺度下移动轨迹预测;然后,结合太阳-云-光伏电站的位置关系建立云遮挡评估模型,准确判断目标时刻下不同层高云团对光伏电站的遮挡情况,进而完成量化评估;最后,通过光电转换模型实现光伏发电功率超短期预测。结果显示,所提模型能准确预估未来云移动轨迹及云遮挡下的功率衰减系数,展示出较好的预测性能,具有一定的推广价值。The shielding of photovoltaic power stations by clouds will lead to random fluctuations of photovoltaic power generation,bringing challenges to the stable operation of power grid.Especially,under the strategic background of increasing new energy permeability,the security and stability of power grid are facing more serious challenges.In order to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power rapid fluctuation under cloud occlusion,this paper proposes a super-short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power considering cloud occlusion based on satellite cloud image.Firstly,target clouds with potential impacts were extracted according to the location of the station,and the cloud trajectory tracking algorithm was used to predict the movement trajectory at the ultra-short-term scale.Then,the cloud shielding evaluation model was established based on the location relationship of sun-cloud-photovoltaic power station,and the shielding situation of photovoltaic power station by different layer clouds was quantitatively evaluated by accurately judging the target time.Finally,ultra-short-term power prediction was realized by photoelectric conversion model.The results show that the proposed model can be adoped to accurately predict the future cloud trajectory and power attenuation coefficient under cloud occlusion,showing good prediction performance and having certain popularization value.

关 键 词：卫星云图 云团运动 坐标转换 云遮模型 超短期预测 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]