HSPF模型在渌水流域洪水预报中的应用  

Application of HSPF Model in Flood Forecasting of Lushui Basin

作　　者：莫军成 黄春福 杨家亮 隆院男[2,3] MO Jun-cheng;HUANG Chun-fu;YANG Jia-liang;LONG Yuan-nan(Hunan Water Resources&.Hydropower Survey,Design,Planning and Research Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,China;School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&.Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,湖南长沙410007 [2]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [3]洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第2期70-73,210,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079010);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2019081-45);湖南省重点研发计划(2020SK2130,2020SK2129)。

摘　　要：近年来,流域暴雨洪水灾害事件频发,准确、可靠的洪水预报是有效预防和抵御山洪灾害的重要措施。以渌水流域为研究区域,构建HSPF半分布式模型,选取流域2013~2020年洪水资料中代表性较好的场次洪水完成模型参数的率定和验证,并采用确定性系数、相对误差等指标进行洪水模拟精度评价。结果表明,该模型在渌水流域场次洪水模拟中表现良好,15场洪水模拟的峰现时间、洪峰流量合格率分别为100.0%、80.0%,洪量及径流深的模拟合格率均为93.3%,确定性系数均值为0.80,总体预报精度达到乙级,说明构建的HSPF洪水预报模型在渌水流域具有较好的适用性,可为该地区的洪水预报提供依据。In recent years, rainstorm and flood disasters occur frequently in the basin. Accurate and reliable flood forecasting is an important measure to effectively prevent and resist mountain torrents. Taking Lushui basin as the research area, this paper constructed the HSPF semi-distributed model. Choosing the representative floods in the flood data of the basin from 2013 to 2020, the calibration and verification of the model parameters were carried out. The accuracy of flood simulation was evaluated by using indexes of certainty coefficient and relative error. The results show that the model has a good performance in the field flood simulation of Lushui basin. The qualified rates of peak time and peak discharge of 15 flood simulations are 100.0% and 80.0%, respectively, the qualified rates of flood volume and runoff depth are 93.3%, and the average value of certainty coefficient is 0.80. The overall prediction accuracy reaches class B, indicating that the HSPF flood prediction model has good applicability in Lushui basin. The research results can provide basis for flood forecasting in this area.

关 键 词：HSPF模型 半分布式水文模型 渌水流域 洪水 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]