人口老龄化背景下中国养老金缺口分析及其对策  

Analysis and Countermeasures of Chinese Pension Gap Under the Background of Population Aging

作　　者：张琳琳 王喆 刘庆富[2] Zhang Linlin;Wang Zhe;Li uQingfu(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期138-149,共12页Fudan Journal（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“基金管理规模的最优性和适度性研究:基于市场多方制衡的理论与实证”(项目批准号:72203043);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中华优秀传统文化创造性转化和创新性发展的社会实现路径与机制研究”(项目批准号:22ZDA081)的资助。

摘　　要：在人口老龄化加剧、缴费率低、养老金待遇水平逐步提升等因素的共同作用下,我国养老金缺口从2014年开始呈现出逐年加速扩大趋势。为了对未来趋势做出更加准确的判断,本文利用精算模型对我国2020—2035年养老金缺口情况进行计算和预测后发现:伴随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深,我国养老金征缴缺口在2035年将高达30.27万亿元,即使考虑财政补贴,届时仍将有高达28.15万亿元的缺口;即使进一步假设将养老金及收入完全用于社会保障基金投资或高风险收益的明星混合型基金投资,养老金缺口仍将超过26万亿元。上述预测和判断表明,财政补贴、参数改革、系统化改革等现行的养老金政策都无法改变我国养老金缺口越来越大的趋势,甚至还可能出现严重的养老金支付危机。对此,本文提出了有效解决我国养老金缺口的金融支持方案,具体为:可以基于政府信用进行融资,增加养老金初始投资金额,再以专业化的多元配置投资大力提高养老金的投资收益,最终通过由融资和投资所构成的双渠道金融支持来解决我国的养老金缺口问题。Under the joint influence of factors such as the intensification of population aging, low payment rate and the gradual improvement of pension treatment level, the pension gap has been accelerating since 2014. In order to make a more accurate judgment on the future trend, this paper uses the actuarial model to calculate and predict the pension gap in China from 2020 to 2035. It is found that under the condition that the degree of population aging continues to intensify, the net Chinese pension gap will be 30.27 trillion yuan in 2035. After including financial subsidies, the pension gap will still be as high as 28.15 trillion yuan. Further, this paper assumes that the pension and its income are fully used for investment in social security funds and star hybrid funds. However, the pension gap will still exceed 26 trillion yuan. It is obvious that the current pension policies such as financial subsidies, parameter reform and systematic reform cannot change the growing trend of Chinese pension gap, and may even bring out more serious problems. In this regard, this paper suggests financing with government credit as the guarantee to increase the initial investment funds of pension, as well as increasing the investment return of pension with professional diversified asset allocation. Finally, the Chinese pension gap can be solved through the dual-channel financial support, including financing and investment.

关 键 词：养老金缺口 人口老龄化 金融支持 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F842.67[政治法律—中外政治制度]