中国—东盟国家地缘关系脆弱性与双向旅游流的关系  

A Study on the Relationship between the Geo-relation Vulnerability and Two-way Tourism Flow of China-ASEAN

作　　者：陈秋萍[1] 刘紫娟 陈金华[1] CHEN Qiu-ping;LIU Zi-juan;CHEN Jin-hua

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第1期71-84,共14页Journal of Huaqiao University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:“两岸四地海岛旅游资源开发利用与安全管理研究”(10BGL048);华侨大学“海上丝绸之路”专项课题“中国东盟联合申报“海上丝绸之路”世界文化遗产对策研究”(HSYB2014-08)。

摘　　要：东南亚地缘环境日益复杂,给区域合作带来了诸多挑战。基于GDELT数据库,采用Arcgis空间分析、格兰杰因果检验等方法探讨中国—东盟国家地缘关系脆弱性与双向旅游流的关系。结果表明:1.地缘关系脆弱性呈现逐年下降趋势;高等地缘关系脆弱性国家集聚分布于东南亚地区的东南部;2.中国—东盟国家旅游流逆差逐年增大,旅游流总体呈上升趋势,且多集中于泰国湾沿岸,相较出境游,东盟入境中国旅游发展较为滞后;3.地缘关系脆弱性与入境旅游流间互为格兰杰因果关系,二者间互动可综合攘括为“负向循环抑制”过程。研究有助于厘清地缘关系脆弱性与双向旅游流的内在关系,预测和识别地缘风险,深化中国—东盟旅游合作。Based on the GDELT database, this paper uses Arcgis spatial analysis and Granger causality test to explore the relationship between geo-relation vulnerability and two-way tourism flows of China-ASEAN. The results show that:(1) The vulnerability of geo-relations has been declining year by year, reflecting the growing geopolitical influence and comprehensive strength of China. The countries with high geopolitical vulnerability cluster in the southeast of Southeast Asia;(2) The tourism flow deficit between China and ASEAN countries is increasing year by year, which reflects the rapid development of China’s outbound tourism. Tourism flows are generally on the rise, and most of them are concentrated along the coast of the Gulf of Thailand. Compared with China’s outbound tourism to ASEAN, the inbound tourism from ASEAN to China lags behind;(3) The relationship between geo-relation vulnerability and inbound tourism flows is Granger causality, and the interaction between them can be comprehensively described as a “negative cyclic inhibition” process. The study is helpful to clarify the inherent relationship between the geo-relation vulnerability and two-way tourism flow, predict and identify geographical risks, and deepen China-ASEAN tourism cooperation.

关 键 词：地缘关系 脆弱性 双向旅游流 格兰杰因果检验 中国—东盟 

分 类 号：F590.84[经济管理—旅游管理]