全运会跳高项目发展态势、预测及备战对策研究  

A Study of Development Trend,Forecast and Preparation Measure of National Games’ High Jump Event

作　　者：廉子涵 林茹婷 Lian Zihan;Lin Ruting(Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第1期74-78,共5页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：本文采用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较分析法、灰色预测法等,对全运会跳高成绩发展态势进行分析,运用邓氏灰色预测模型对第15届全运会男女跳高项目第一名成绩进行预测,对全运会跳高项目备战对策进行研究。结果表明:(1)全运会男女跳高成绩发展趋势具有相似性,第1-5届呈上升趋势,第5届后略有波动,但总体趋于平稳。(2)全运会男女跳高项目发展相对不平衡。其中,男子跳高运动员成绩波动明显,比赛竞争激烈;而女子与之相反。(3)另外,男子跳高成绩发展态势优于女子;第15届全运会跳高成绩第一名的预测值男子为2.24 m,女子为1.90m。建议:重视科技备战;健全青少年运动员培养体系;探索青少年选材方式方法;注重男子跳高运动员心理建设和技战术运用;制定和实施女子跳高运动员“请进来、走出去”的竞技备战策略。Using the methods of literature review, mathematical statistics, comparative analysis and grey prediction, this study analyzed the development trend of high jump results in the National Games, predicts the results of men’s and women’s high jump champions in the 15th National Games by using Deng’s grey prediction model, and explored the preparation measures for the high jump event in the National Games. RESULTS:(1)Men’s and women’s high jump events in the National Games show similar development trends: on the rise from the 1st to 5th games, and after the 5th games, there is a slight fluctuation, but the overall trend is stable.(2)The development of men’s and women’s high jump events in the National Games is relatively unbalanced. The results of men’s high jumpers fluctuated obviously and the competition was fierce. The opposite is true for women.(3)The development trend of men’s high jump is better than women’s;In the 15th National Games, the predicted results of the high jump champions are 2.24m for men and 1.90m for women. SUGGESTIONS: We recommend to attach importance to use of science and technology in competition preparation;Improve the training system of young athletes;Explore ways and means of selecting talents from youth;Pay attention to psychology and technical and tactical application of male high jumpers;Formulate and implement the strategy of “inviting in and going overseas”.

关 键 词：全运会 跳高 发展态势 灰色预测 对策研究 

分 类 号：G823.1[文化科学—体育训练]