天山巴音布鲁克盆地汛期水资源变化趋势及其影响因素分析  

Water Resources Variation Trend and Influencing Factors in Flood Season of Bayanbulak Basin in the TianShan Mountains

作　　者：刁鹏 李刚 张玮煊 DIAO Peng;LI Gang;ZHANG Weixuan(Meteorological Bureau of Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefectrue,Korla 41000,China)

机构地区：[1]巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2022年第6期51-58,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆气象科技创新发展基金项目(QN202111);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究任务子项目(2019QZKK010206)。

摘　　要：利用1982—2018年巴音布鲁克气象站逐日气象资料和开都河上游大山口水文站逐月径流量资料,采用Morlet小波分析、气候敏感与水量平衡法、时间序列分析等,分析了汛期(5—9月)巴音布鲁克盆地地表径流量变化趋势及气候变化与人工增水作业对径流量的影响。结果表明:近37年巴音布鲁克盆地汛期地表径流量呈增加趋势,突变年份为1989年,存在14、22、4和7a的周期变化,具有17~27、11~16 a和4~8 a的丰枯位相交替变化特征。降水量是影响径流量变化的主导气候因素,对径流量变化的平均影响率为73.1%。因人工增水因素影响,盆地的降水可分为自然降水和人工催化降水,其中自然降水在历史期(1982—1993年)为69.5%,作业前期(1994—2006年)为59.28%,作业后期(2007—2018年)为74.56%,而人工催化降水在人工增水期(1994—2018年)对径流量变化的平均影响率为7.93%,表明径流量对降水的依赖程度正大幅增加,同时人工增水作业对径流量也有一定增加作用。Based on the daily meteorological data of Bayanbulak meteorological station and the monthly runoff data of Dashankou hydrological station during 1982-2018,and the morlet wavelet analysis,sensitive method and water balance method,combined with time series analysis method were used to analyze the change trend of surface runoff in the Bayanbulak Basin and climate change and the effects of artificial rainfall enhancement on the runoff of Kaidu River in the flood season(May to September).The results showed that:in recent 37 years,the runoff of Bayanbulak Basin increased in flood season,and the abrupt change was observed in 1989.It presented the periodic variation of runoff was 14,22,4 and 7 a,the periods of 17-27,11-16 a and period of 4-8 a were alternations of runoff.The main factor affecting the change of runoff was precipitation,and the average influence rate of precipitation on runoff was 73.1%.The precipitation in the basin can be divided into natural and artificial catalytic because of artificial precipitation enhancement,the impact rate of natural precipitation on runoff was 69.5%in the historical period(1982-1993),59.28%in the early stage of the operation(1994-2006),74.56%in the later stage of the operation(2007-2018),the average impact rate of artificial catalytic precipitation on the runoff change during the artificial water augmentation period(1994-2018)was 7.93%.It shows that the dependence of runoff on precipitation is increasing and the artificial precipitation enhancement operation can significantly increase the runoff.

关 键 词：人工增水 降水量 径流量 统计检验 巴音布鲁克盆地 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]