冷备系统剩余寿命近似计算方法  

Approximate calculation method for residual life of cold standby system

作　　者：赵骞 谭尧 吴波 蒋平[1] 郭波[1] ZHAO Qian;TAN Yao;WU Bo;JIANG Ping;GUO Bo(College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410005,China;College of Information Communication,National University of Defense Technology,Xi’an 710106,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学系统工程学院,湖南长沙410005 [2]国防科技大学信息通信学院,陕西西安710106

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2023年第3期913-920,共8页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71871218)资助课题。

摘　　要：冷备系统是提高系统可靠性的重要手段。然而,由于结构复杂,对于n中取k冷备系统剩余寿命的研究相对较少。为此,提出了一种冷备系统剩余寿命近似计算方法。首先,通过解析法、数值方法以及仿真方法获得冷备系统任意时刻的可靠度。在此基础上,进一步利用组合辛普森公式,得到冷备系统剩余寿命的点估计与区间估计近似值。算例分析部分首先研究了这种计算方式的偏差及影响近似计算精度的因素,在此基础上通过实验验证了所提近似计算方法简单高效,具有较高的准确性。通过与已有方法进行对比,进一步说明了所提方法的适用性。Cold standby redundancy is an important approach to increase the reliability of a system.However,research on the residual life of k-out-of-n cold standby system is insufficient because of its structure’s complexity.Thus,an approximate calculation method is proposed to fill this gap.Firstly,the analytical method,the numerical method and the simulation method are used and the reliability of this system at any certain time can be obtained.Then,based on the compound Simpson formula,the point estimation as well as the confidence interval of residual life of cold standby system can be calculated.The bias of this numerical method is discussed and factors affecting the calculation approximate precision of the proposed method are analyzed.The proposed method then proves to be quite simple,efficient and accurate.By comparing with the existing methods,the suitability of the proposed method is validated.

关 键 词：冷备系统 剩余寿命 组合辛普森公式 

分 类 号：TP20[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]