土地财政与地方政府债务具有互动关系吗?--基于省级面板VAR的实证分析  

Is there an interactive relationship between land finance and local government debt?--Empirical analysis based on provincial panel VAR

作　　者：张蚌蚌 田文苗 ZHANG Bangbang;TIAN Wenmiao(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;College of International Business,Xi an FanYi University,Xi an 710105,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西安翻译学院国际商学院,陕西西安710105

出　　处：《土地经济研究》2022年第1期136-156,共21页Journal of Land Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171267)。

摘　　要：随着地方政府债务规模急剧膨胀,土地财政逐渐成为地方政府新财源,探究土地财政与地方政府间相互作用机制尤为重要。基于2010—2017年省级面板数据,通过面板向量自回归方法进行实证研究,研究表明:(1)土地财政与地方政府债务之间存在相互作用关系,短期内,土地出让收入与土地相关税收对地方政府债务产生正向影响,当土地出让收入每增加一个单位,对地方政府债务产生7.28%的影响,长期内作用效果不显著;(2)地方政府债务同样对土地财政产生正向作用,当地方政府债务每增加一个单位,对土地出让收入产生32.15%的影响。最后,从土地财政与地方政府债务两个方面提出相关建议。With the rapid expansion of local government debt,land finance has gradually become a new source of local government revenue,and it is particularly important to explore the interaction mechanism between land finance and local government.Based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2017,an empirical study is conducted through the panel vector autoregressive method.The research shows that:(1)There is an interaction between land finance and local government debt.In the short term,land transfer income and land-related taxes has a positive impact on local government debt.When the land transfer income increases by one unit,it has a 7.28%impact on local government debt,and the effect is not significant in the long run;(2)Local government debt also has a positive effect on land finance.When the local government debt increases by one unit,it has a 32.15%impact on the land transfer income.Finally,relevant suggestions are put forward from two aspects of land finance and local government debt.

关 键 词：土地经济 土地财政 地方政府债务 面板向量自回归(PVAR) 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F812